Mike Murphy on the Democrats' "Good Bad Night"
In this episode, we go deep on deconstructing the mid-term results. We try to understand the implications for both parties heading into 2024. (And Murphy even tries to draw a connection between Richard Nixon and Mahatma Gandhi).
Mike Murphy has worked on 26 gubernatorial and US Senate races across the country, including 12 wins in Blue States. He was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He’s a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He’s co-host of the critically acclaimed "Hacks on Tap" podcast. Mike is also co-director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Political Future.
Transcript
DISCLAIMER: THIS TRANSCRIPT HAS BEEN CREATED USING AI TECHNOLOGY AND MAY NOT REFLECT 100% ACCURACY.
[00:00:00] Let's pretend the Republican Party is the Sopranos. If Tony starts getting everybody indicted and we're all going to jail, eventually there's a meeting of all the lieutenants. We got to do something about Tony. It's bad for everybody here. So, you know, that's, that's Trump's real jeopardy. He's a loser.
Lots to digest and pick apart on the election results from the midterms. We wanted our old pal Mike Murphy to come back to the podcast to help us think this through. Both think through what happened, what we've learned from the midterms. And what this means for both parties heading into 2024. Mike Murphy, as you know, worked on 26 gubernatorial and U.
S. Senate races across the country, including 12 wins in blue states, something that's getting harder and harder to do. He was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and [00:01:00] Arnold Schwarzenegger. Today he lives in Los Angeles, where, shall we say, he's a close observer, maybe an informal advisor.
To a leading candidate for mayor of LA. Mike's also a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He's a co host of one of my favorite political podcasts, hacks on tap, which if you're not a subscriber already, I highly recommend that you become one. Mike's also co director of the university of Southern California's center for the political future.
This is call me back. And I'm pleased to welcome back to the podcast, a fan favorite, uh, of this podcast, Mike Murphy. Who's going to bring pearls of wisdom to make sense of, um, what exactly has happened over the last couple of days. Uh, Mike, I'm sure you're exhausted. So I especially appreciate you making time.
Well, I just came from an election night party at the Yamava tribal casino, the jewel of California, where liquor would serve because we won our initiative [00:02:00] against FanDuel and DraftKings with, well, we're still counting votes, but over 80 percent voting no in the most expensive campaign in the country.
And what were they voting no on? Online sports betting. FanDuel came in with 100 million, and DraftKings, and MGM Bets, and the The tribes, my client, we beat them like a slow mule. And, uh, we, we had what might be the biggest no vote in a contested initiative ever in California. So much, much drinking. So I barely made it here and being a Republican, I'm drinking too.
It was a bad damn night. All right. So let's talk about it. I'm not so sure it was so bad. Well, you're right. I mean, it's like Dunkirk, we won the house, uh, but we should, I mean, we don't need more victories like this is, uh, Winston would say. But we should have won big I was wrong. I predicted there would be a wave I wasn't sure how big it would be But I knew we'd win the house and I thought at least by 9 to 12 seats probably a few more And I thought we are more likely not to win the senate now to be fair to the voters of nevada and georgia [00:03:00] We don't know who's won the Senate yet, but, you know, so it's one of these things where the Democrats may be very happy because, my God, we didn't get wiped out.
We now have the leadership of John Fetterman. I'm starting a Kickstarter, by the way, to buy him a tie now that he's been elected. Um, to the Senate, that said, I'm an Oz hater, so I'm not unhappy about it. Ideologically, I am. But bottom line is, we, we may, the Dems may avoid a complete wipeout, which in a year like this with inflation, they should have had.
But the republicans are going to almost certainly have the house and they have a still a fighting chance at the senate So, you know and from the trump point of view anti trump from my point of view It it was yet another field experiment of if we code our candidates in anthrax How do we do in the election?
So the Trump dynamic could change in the party. So so let me give you let me give you Let me give you a positive take from a Republican standpoint that I'm not sure I agree with, but I'm going to, but I'm trying to talk myself into it. Okay. So first of all, it was definitely not a red wave across the country, but it [00:04:00] was a red wave in certain parts of the country and surprisingly it was somewhat of a red wave in blue states.
So where I am right now in New York. We picked up, Republicans picked up like five congressional seats. It was Lee Zeldin, our gubernatorial candidate. Well, he didn't win. He came within five points. Keep in mind, when Andrew Cuomo last ran, he won by, he beat the Republican by 23 points. Uh, I mean, there was a, it's a really extraordinary what happened down ballot here in New York.
So in Florida, obviously, is basically now a red state. DeSantis wins by 20 points. In 2018, he won by like half a point. So Marco walked to reelection. Right. So in pockets of the country. In pockets of the country, there was a wave, and most surprisingly, some of it was in blue parts of the country. Well, yeah, um, you know, this whole thing is kind of an expectations curve, Grayson.
On one hand, historically, the Dems should have had a bad time. Biden's numbers on the economy, inflation was big. Um, as we spoke about before, all those things [00:05:00] should have been a very fertile Republican world. On the other hand, the victory, we'll call it a spotted victory, or something I used on Twitter that ticked off a bunch of liberals, but I think it's accurate.
The Democrats had a good, bad night, you know, because ultimately, if we lose the House, that's not a good night. But compared to the opportunity we had, it wasn't that good. Now you have the outliers, Florida. New York got close, but a close loss is still a loss. But still, but that's the getting close. Right.
There's energy out there in many places. The voters kind of hated everybody. Right. And in a few places, they love the hours in a few places. They love the DS in Michigan, where we ran another Trump chuckle head. Not only did Whitmer, uh, win reelection is now catapulted into the on deck circle for the democratic presidential nomination.
I believe with others, the Dems picked up the state Senate for the first time since 83. Uh, so, you know, you can find different things. The, my 50, 000 foot announce or 10, 000 foot [00:06:00] is the Republicans did far less than they expected and far less than they deserved. And the. Culprits are pretty clear. I'll give you one case study.
That's more like my favorite race. And it was the one I was watching the most because it reported fairly early New Hampshire, first congressional district, you know, New Hampshire is a two congressional district state. The Southern and Eastern part is the first district. It is a classic 51 49 swing district, Democrat incumbent there, Chris Pappas.
You political junkies who've ever been to the Puritan backroom, the political hangout restaurant in Manchester, that's the family business. He was the maitre d there. Uh, he's a well connected local guy, moderate, run of the mill Democrat. This kind of year he should have lost, but the Republicans nominated kind of a B minus Trumpy, regular Republican.
The establishment got behind him, thought, okay, in a year like this, we can probably make this happen. And remember, New Hampshire is a rare Republican kind of pro choice state too. [00:07:00] He lost the primary to Carolyn Leavitt, who had worked as a junior aide in the Trump press office and was kind of beyond Trump, kind of tickling the outskirts of, uh, Marjorie Taylor Greenville there, you know, I hadn't quite stepped over the line, but but two good skips.
She'd be in in there and The so great test Will the wave be enough to drag in a cinder block like that in a very winnable district for the arts? And the answer was no Pappas won anyone pretty comfortably Which showed that bad candidates are still an anchor that can ruin a big opportunity. And if you go down the list, you can write an exception for JD Vance, but that's Ohio, but in the competitive places, the Oz is not so good.
A bunch of congressional races, not so good. A lot of it linked to Trump. So will the parties take a second look at Trump understanding 2018, 2020. Now, 2022, when a general election is about Donald Trump, the Democrats win, [00:08:00] even when they ought to be in trouble. And I think that'll shake a lot of thinking in the GOP going forward.
The New York, New Hampshire race. I mean, there's that Majerski in Ohio, same thing. Uh, you know, the. Bulldog in New Hampshire again, man. Bulldog in New Hampshire, John Gibbs in Michigan who had beat Peter Meyer in the primary who had voted for Trump's impeachment and then Gibbs beat him and then Gibbs loses the seat.
It should have been a winnable seat for Republicans. Right, big honor roll of Trump's anthrax in a general election and how many times we have to conduct this experiment. The flip side is, so we talked about DeSantis, there's obviously Brian Kemp in Georgia, ran away with it, uh, But ran away from Donald too, didn't attack him, but was an antagonist in the primary.
Uh, Mike DeWine in Ohio, so there was also a wave of competent Republican governors, not hostile to Trump, not like, they don't wear anti Trump, you know, signs and armor. Yeah, but they just avoid them. They kind of do the lip service and keep going. They get them out of the way. [00:09:00] So, that's interesting, right?
In a sense, was this sort of, was this election kind of like a surgical strike? against Trump affiliated or, or Trump, you know, uh, candidates plastered with Trump all over them. Yeah, I think that's true. And when you run a general election in a competitive place like it's just another part of the primary, which is what the Trump candidates do.
Uh, they lose and it's amazing that you know, that's enough baggage in a year Where the barrier to entry to win ought to be a lot lower I mean, I think the other thing out there we should pay some attention to And we're going to need time to get all the data from the college towns and everything The exit polls are one indicator, but they don't know everything Uh, there was a young voters did participate above normal They acted more like a presidential year how big that surge is we're going to find out but it was definitely there The abortion.
Do you think jobs, do you think jobs was a Yeah, totally. I don't think it's the only reason I think the Republican brand has become culturally, you know, creepy elders from [00:10:00] footloose, all, all, all that stuff I think energized younger voters and is a drag on the party. And by the way, I think. I, I guarantee you, and I think you won't disagree with this, that last night, the encrypted texts were flying between members saying, what the hell do we do about Kevin McCarthy?
Because we should have won, in their point of view, we should have won 25 seats last night. And instead, we're going to be in the single digits somewhere. So I think, I'm not sure his pathway to speaker is at all clear now. And I think Trump's going after him too. Trump's got to blame somebody. He'll blame McConnell.
Now he'll blame, uh, McCarthy. Well, press reports are he's blaming Melania for endorsing, for his endorsement of Oz. Um, okay. Really? Really? Boy, I hate to see that guy lose. Um, you know, I don't like left wing senators, but boy, oh boy, uh, Oz on so many levels is, um, an easy guy not to like, and I think the voters of Pennsylvania made that decision.
So two, two questions, one, I had someone present polling, who's doing [00:11:00] polling for NBC News come to my place last week and show me a bunch of polling. That turned out to be, his polling turned out to be pretty accurate in terms of the final results. He texted me this morning. I Sort of smug. Yes. I remember our conversation.
Remember I watched the other status. Nothing's worse than pollsters when they're right. Believe me, gosh, it's insufferable. And he's probably listening right now. He knows who he is. Uh, but I think I do too. So good job on that polling at dinner. He said candidate quality. And big high profile races still counts for about five to six percent, five to six points.
So I know, Dan, you don't think these races are breaking against the Republicans and they shouldn't break against the Republicans. But when you have flawed candidates in a number of these states, five to six points could be the price. Oh yeah. Look, if voters don't have anywhere to go, then they can get trapped casting a vote for something they don't like, but they don't feel they have an alternative.
And I think you, you saw that. You know, the, the tell. Again, if you had asked [00:12:00] me to bet and many people did in a few days for the election, I would have bet on Oz to narrowly win Pennsylvania, basically on the wave. But, and I tweeted about this about a week out, there was a Fox insider advantage poll, and the Fox polling is pretty good.
And it had It had Federman a little ahead, but it has had Oz sitting at 42 and what I tweeted was, God, they hate this guy, you know, they're just maybe anchors around his feet. And that's clearly in the end, they decided, I mean, I give Federman the line of the year after the bad debate when he said, you know, I'm going to get better, but Oz is going to be terrible forever.
And I think that's the decision they made, um, that they just couldn't live with them. And that's candidate quality. I think McCormick would have won that race. Yeah, so do I. I, I was for him. He's a great guy. Hope he stays in public life and runs again. And he doesn't have to wear the bright red hat now. He can be himself.
That's the other lesson. I hope he's listening. The reemergence of Trump in the final days of the election. So he had been very present late summer. There was the Mar a Lago [00:13:00] raid, which put Trump right back in the frame. And then I was struck kind of September through middle of October, Trump was kind of quiet.
And then something happened those last 10 days where he reemerged and not only did reemerge, but he reemerged in states where he had delivered candidates in the primary and forced them. to campaign with him. So suddenly Oz and Vance and others were were and Walker. I think we're appearing with Trump in closing in the closing days of the election, which I don't know anyone around Trump who thought it was a good idea to put these candidates in the position.
It's one thing in the primaries, but in the general, right, right. So what was going on there? And do you think it had a, you know, I think they're playing a turtle. King Trump politics, but you're right. Trump, the minute the primary is over, Trump should have been duct taped to a chair and put on whatever cargo plane they had Kamala Harris on to go tour the Guam Naval installations.
The Dems knew what to do with her for the most part. Uh, but because Trump's a gorilla driven by ego and it, he had to show up in the. [00:14:00] You know, the Republican label used to be a charging elephant. Now it's a cowering elephant, shivering at the idea of Trump's displeasure. So we led with our orange gin and it got in the way of what should have been a pretty easy house and Senate pickup, which we may still eke out, you know, I I'm trying to figure out.
Nevada looks really, excuse me, Nevada, I always get mad when I say that. Yeah, please, really, oh my gosh. It's the only time I got in real trouble on the Romney Ryan campaign is when I referred in a press interview to Nevada. And, uh, you know, I almost got kicked off the plane. Um, but anyway, Nevada is gonna be real tight.
I saw this mystery boat in Clark County. But laxalt still is in that hunt for sure and you know if that pops a million years ago I worked on for on the Coverdale race And that was another one of a 50 percent runoff and the turnout dynamic, you know in a runoff in Georgia hard for the Dems now This thing is gonna be so nationalized.
They're gonna be caravans volunteers driving down [00:15:00] there. It's gonna be the biggest proxy war in in party history So we'll see what happens, but, um, uh, you know, the Senate could still creak in the Republican direction. It's still very possible. So the, again, this could be a good Dunkirk, but there's no way the Republicans can't look at this and say massively underperformed.
Yeah, but in the House, the Republicans can get to 230. I mean, so in the House, they could get close, close to 230. Yeah, they could, they could, but you know, again, you know, this is one of these things where you win the lottery and on the way there, you like fall down a manhole cover and you cut an artery with picking up the card, you know, it couldn't go more wrong, but there is a donkey to the murder metaphors here to pin this thing on it's Trump, Trump got into primaries and state after state and whack competitive candidates to run, run wacko birds as my old pal McCain would say.
Yeah. Who in a general election are trouble and then he popped up in the general election just to put icing on the cake And it was a massive gift to the d's and they frankly ought to name the [00:16:00] dnc headquarters after him One thing even the trump people can't really dispute this I mean they will because they're factotums and yes men But we now have enough history of trump on general election ballots from 2018 to 2020.
Um, you know This is not how you win elections So maybe the republican party doesn't want to win elections anymore. They want to win primaries One Thing that Democrats did in this, in this cycle, which we were, you and I and others were very critical of was the democratic congressional committees intervention and, and, and Democrat aligned, uh, Senate committees, uh, intervention in Republican primaries to get MAGA Republicans to win primaries.
And they spent 42 million, which is on the one hand, a lot of money. But when you think about the return on investment they got, it wasn't that much money because it turns out they got a lot of. Republicans nominated who probably wouldn't have gotten nominated otherwise. And they turned out to be very beatable in the general [00:17:00] election.
And also by populating the cycle, they can contributed to this sense that there were a lot of unfit candidates running on the Republican side. So on the one hand, I think it was, it was. Reprehensible what the Democrats did to, on the one hand, talking about the importance of there being a healthy Republican party and Republicans need to stand up to Trump and all these, you know, principled calls for courage.
And at the same time funding, uh, uh, the defeat of those Republicans that, that were standing up. So on the one hand, it was quite cynical on the other hand, looks like it worked. Yeah. You know, in the great history of cynical and somewhat immoral tactics, it worked pretty well now, you know, the, um. It's like nerve gas in World War I.
The first time they used it, it went backwards and killed their troops and the Germans. But the second and third, it started to work pretty well. By Battle XI, everybody had it. So, you know, is the walkaway lesson here the Republican Party is now [00:18:00] in the AOC business and Democratic primaries? Maybe. You know, but net net for the democracy and the category, I mean, I can win the Michigan Ohio football game every year if I'm allowed to bring machetes, uh, for my team, but I predict You know, it'll catch on and then we're going to have a very bloody version of football.
So morally I'm opposed to it, but sure, cynical, dirty, rotten trick work fine. All right. I want to get into national looking ahead to national politics in a minute, but before I do, you live in the belly of the beast of one of the most interesting races, I think in the country, which is the LA mayoral race.
So what actually. Oh, it's fascinating. And I'll take a 10 second stop just on one more federal race. Go Adam Frisch. Colorado is interesting. That's bull. Oh, the guy. Bollard's race. Yeah. Yeah. Here's this from like Pitkin County. I think in, uh, yeah, it's hanging on by a thread. There's more vote for her there, but he's got a lead praying for him.
And disclosure. I was for him. I [00:19:00] sent him money. That was an interesting microcosm because the local Republicans, many of them publicly got on board with Frisch. I mean, that was a case where it was too much. She had a primary opponent, primary opponent, who got a decent chunk of vote, and a lot of Republican notables actually cross partied to support him as kind of a unique candidate, and it may well have worked, and that is the happiest single thing if we pull that off, because on behalf of Western civilization, she has no room in the U.
S. House. Now, to Caruso versus Bass. So here we are in L. A. We've reported as of now, I haven't looked in a few hours, there's another dump that may come later today and they're going to say how many total votes were cast, most of them by mail. There are about 500, 000 votes cast, I think Caruso's up 12, 000 ish.
Those are mostly First wave of I believe vote by mail now. Somebody told me the registrar's saying their election day I'm dubious because the way they do it in LA is All the voting locations load them up on trucks and drive them to one [00:20:00] counting center far in the county So we had LA traffic to the complexities of this And then of course if your bowels postmarked yesterday, you know, they still have time to wait a week to count everything There will be a big dump on Friday Which will really be when we get a handle.
Now the 500, 000 that are in now are anywhere between 40 and 50 percent of the ballot. In 2018, the city cast in the last governor's race, because normally these mayor races are not on. November election days. That's something new, which has been good for Caruso because it's bringing in more general election voters, not the normal kind of inside L.
A. Democratic base club that would vote in a weird election day made up of public employee unions, etcetera. So this thing could have over a million votes, even up to 1. 2. Depending on turnout, we got half a million. And now Caruso's ahead. The question is how the next waves look. Now, um, Caruso had all the momentum and, you know, disclosure, he's a friend of mine.
I know you were for Caruso, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, yeah, I'm for Caruso. But but to try to be [00:21:00] skeptical and honest about it, she has the democratic advantage in this city. And the Democratic primary in the city of LA, Bernie beat Biden. So just, just to remind our listeners, so Caruso was by public registration and I think donations a lifelong Republican.
He changes registration to Democrat and, and says he's a Democrat and ran as a Democrat, but by tough as a tough minded kind of technocratic kind of fix the city Democrat. Yeah. He's at, it's kind of a complicated journey. He was a Republican for a long time, you know, business guy, et cetera, et cetera. Then he kind of had it with the Republicans during the rise of Trump and went, changed to independent a few years back.
And he voted for Jerry Brown. You know, he supported both sides. He's a pragmatic middle of the road guy, not super ideological. Then he supported Kasich as an anti Trump alternative and switched back to Republican because he didn't feel he could be a finance co chair as an independent. Then he switched to Democrat after that, as he prepared a race.
And you know, he's been pretty, I left the Republican party, it [00:22:00] changed. You know, and I'm his first job in politics is working for a democratic mayor, Tom Bradley. So it's more complicated now with the bass people in there. I E we'll say is he has a wild eyed Kevin McCarthy, Mitch McConnell, loving pro life, not Republican, which is not really true, but Hey, it's politics.
So anyway, he is running as a. Democrat, she is a Democrat. She has the democratic establishment here. Labor is split. He's got building trades. He's got the cop union and the firefighters. He's got the Latino democratic clubs. He's doing very well in the Latino part of the city. So, you know, it's become more LA LA may not be as, as, uh, hellhole San Francisco is these days with crime and drugs and.
But it's not far behind. I mean, it's there's a real sense. Well, yeah, we have a huge homeless crisis here and tent cities everywhere. Kids walking past infested tent cities with crime surge cruises of a former police commissioner. Uh, when the Bill Bratton area helped bring him in. [00:23:00] So, you know, he He's running his, I'm going to clean up homelessness and I'm a builder.
I can build the housing. You want more of the same from city hall, you can have it. It's corrupt. They can't get anything done. I'm a big broom. And that's resonating. That's lifting them up. So in the last five weeks of the election, Caruso has been picking up a point or two a day from behind. She has been flat, but strong.
She's the normal here in an election. So in the last polling, it was within margin of error, Caruso plus one tied, but he had a palpable sense of momentum. So the question is. Will messaging and the need for change lift him in or will everybody go to the tribal corner and have they done enough damage to him?
Uh, on your secret Republican pro life nut, uh, which he's made it clear he's pro choice, but you know, if you, if you've ever shaken hands with a Republican, of course you're a pro life nut from their point of view. Uh, and we'll see. He's a Bass donor by the way. Um, he teases her about, well, if I was that bad on the abortion, why didn't you ever send back a contribution and discuss, you know, you cashed the check in a New [00:24:00] York minute.
Uh, and she's got her own scandal where she got an 80, 000 graduate degree from USC by basically smiling and waving through a window, uh, being a powerful member of Congress. And there's funny footage of her at a Church of Scientology kind of wacko sphere event thanking them and without any clue to their So if you put a gun to my head, and maybe I'm talking my book here, but I think my pal Caruso was going to pull this off, but it's really tight and it could take 10 days to count and any any other races to watch in California that, uh, you know, there are a couple of congressional races.
Um, again, the Dems aren't doing as well as they thought though. Yeah, I haven't looked in a few hours. I think Scotty bow may not make it in Orange County against Katie Porter. Uh, but, uh, not a lot here. Okay. Yeah, the statewide stuff, Lanhee Chen, God bless him, never had a chance for control. Really too bad.
Good guy. All right, two, two, two, two items in the exit polls. We talked briefly about abortion and Dobbs. I was struck like in Pennsylvania, something like [00:25:00] 30 percent of voters cited, uh, abortion as their number one issue. It ran higher than it did in the pre polls and the best explanation for that with a big caveat on exits are tricky Exits are a combination of precinct interviews and a phone poll to absentee ballot voters Which is awful hard to do during the madness of the final days of an election But if the abortion numbers up that meant Democrat participation is up, which is a tell that young voters showed up That the electorate was more young voters than the pollsters might have waited it beforehand.
And we're no once we, we can look at precincts. Learn more, but that seems to be the early tell and it's very good news for the Dems and what about the consumed seemingly consistent Responses to questions about whether or not Joe Biden should run for re election And all these exit polls like 50 60 65 percent of voters said he should not run again Yeah, no, it's a thing out there, no doubt at [00:26:00] all.
But if he had lost both houses, which could still happen, but if it had been a bigger Republican night and there'd been a shocker, somebody, you know, a bullduck one or, or, uh, Patty Murray went down or something like that, then I think they would have been out for his blood. Now he's got a little of a comeback story.
We got him on the run. The Republicans, if they get the majority, although hard to do if they're only three or four ahead, we'll see where it lands. Uh, hard to do their crazy impeachment stuff now, which is, would have been in Biden's interest if they overreached. So, you know, there's, it's murkier for Biden now, but fundamentally people think he's too old and they're going to either have to fix that or they're going to pay the consequences going forward.
So Biden just gave a press conference, uh, right before we went to air, so to speak, in which he said he quote, he intends to run for re election in 2024. Well, he has to say that, because, you know, if, if, if not, then the primary starts in an hour. Right. So, so, first of all, do you think he's going to [00:27:00] run for re election?
Intent is not as I am. I, I think he wants to, like every president. You know, hard to give up that plane. But, I think he knows he may not be able to. So, it's the right answer for him. I intend to run. That'll keep order to everything for a while, but, you know, right now, everybody's gonna see who controls the Senate in a week.
Or, frankly, in three weeks, because of the Georgia runoff, which looks like the future. How long can he keep the I intend to run without making a final decision schtick going, given that He'll want to give other Democrats who want to run if he doesn't time to start getting organized. I think he's got to Labor Day of 2023 to stretch it.
But you know, all roads lead to, uh, Nevada. Because if she hangs on, then Walker's got to win to tie the game and keep the status quo. And the Democrats will smell victory. And then Biden will be stronger, and he'll be able to play that game later. If, if McConnell's the new leader and it's Quagmire The [00:28:00] pressure will be very strong on him to clarify by the early summer because you know The campaign season for the primaries is this summer and fall because they're all in the first quarter of 2024 Right.
So the Senate outcome is linked to Biden's situation, I think. And before we move to the Republicans, how's your governor, Gavin Newsom, looking and how do you think he's been, uh. He's looking east toward New Hampshire and, uh, uh, South Carolina, et cetera. Um, and you know, on the West Coast, there's a, there's a tell, well not a tell, there's a tilt, which is there's always a snide feeling about, oh, a California, you know, politician.
I'm not a big Gavin fan. But he's telegenic and he's slick and he represents one of every seven Americans or one out of every eight Um, so if you're a california democratic governor You may not have a lot of general election skills because you're in a safe state But boy, oh boy, you're you're from running big media driven stuff and you know how to raise money [00:29:00] So and he's if people think biden's too old He's fresh and young and everything happens first in california Very green been a mayor been a governor on paper.
He he's a player I think Gretchen Whitman is the other big generational player and then in the modern democratic party who just really exceeded It just be Tudor Dixon. Yes, and can run as a hero. I mean the The press corps, based on identity, the new organizing principle of American life, always is going to, I mean, Amy Klobuchar got so many passes, nobody ever voted for her, but she was historically important, it was kind of an echo of Hillary, well, Gretchen could get a little of that tailwind next time.
Kamala Harris got out of the Democratic primaries in 2020 before Iowa. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Um, by distinctly wrong, Klobuchar got nothing in Iowa, but they gave her a lift into New Hampshire. Right. You know, it's kind of, and so Whitmer and she's from the industrial Midwest swing states. Anyway, there's some rocket fuel there [00:30:00] and then there's going to be a strong African American candidate and they may change their primary terrain to move up a diverse state because there's a lot of pressure in New Hampshire's, you know, white yuppie Pete Buttigieg ville.
Uh, and then, uh, Cory Booker, uh, Kamala Harris 2. 0, there were a lot of candidate skill problems there. Somebody's gonna have some institutional swat if they can unify that vote and be that candidate. What about someone like a Chris Murphy? Not, not, you know, obviously moderate, not, maybe not moderate. Uh, white, from the northeast, got a lot of traction on issues like gun control.
Uh, You know, like a Biden type. Yeah, yeah, same with Warner in Virginia, who's sniffing around a little bit. The problem is, I wouldn't want to be a not particularly interested, interesting white male in a Democratic primary these days. Gavin's got the kind of monkey trick of being the California future, super green guy, um, which might be helpful.
But boy, I wouldn't want to be generic white dude. All right. Now, if [00:31:00] they want to win the election, find a Southern white Protestant. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, that's what the computer tells you to run as a Democrat, because you can go cut into some of those, those states and you can do well in the industrial Midwest.
But their primary electorate, you know, they're not, there's symmetry in politics. They're not that different than Republican primary. They think when in doubt, have a bigger primary because every voter is like me. Every voter listens to Fox or every voter is a progressive. And if only we were prouder progressives, we'd get every voter and we'd win.
I mean, you're gonna hear that now, look how close Mandela Barnes came, we just need more candidates like that with more money. The National Party didn't back him enough. Same with Fetterman. Fetterman won, it's the new formula. You know, let's get some cage wrestlers. Okay, so now, let's talk about Everybody argues their side, you know.
Let's talk about the Republicans. First of all, what do you think Trump does next? Oh, right now he's throwing plates, you know, and so he thought he, he, he watches cable news all day, the fool. Um, so he thought, uh, [00:32:00] there's going to be a huge wave and I'll go take credit for it and I'll announce. And that's also a bit of a screen against Justice Department because if I'm an active candidate, they're more hesitant to go after me.
I, I think he's in such trouble it won't stop him, but that's generally a good tactic. And, you know, now I'm the frontrunner and I'll, I'll go after old, uh, the sanctimonious a few times and shebang. The problem he's got is the narrative is now is what the hell's wrong with the Republican Party and it's pretty clearly him.
So, first will be the vengeance tour of who screwed up the election. Well, it was the liberal media. I'm not ruling out they cheated in some of these elections. That idiot Kevin McCarthy doesn't know how to attack. He's too nice to Mitch McConnell and the Washington, D. C. elite. You know, now he's got to be that guy.
And that's not what he wanted. But that's where he'll go. Because he's got to divorce himself from his culpability in this disaster. And you know, we're, we're seeing how well that goes. Remember in every poll, they say, Republican voters say, Oh yeah, I did a great [00:33:00] job. 86 percent approval. Well, you, you for Trump again, drops to 45.
So, and if you look at Florida where DeSantis had a great night, among Florida Republicans, you ask them to pick and DeSantis beats Trump. The one place where the consumers know both products. And I think DeSantis right now only illustrates the fact that a non Trump. populace can do some business. Whether or not DeSantis can take the second and third look, because he's got certain weaknesses, but boy oh boy, he's stronger today than he's ever been, and Trump's weaker.
So let's talk about that. So, as I mentioned earlier, he won by 20 points versus 2018 when he won by half a point. According to the exit polls, he got something like 5th, close to 60 percent of the Hispanic vote. In florida, which is extraordinary. That's been the big alignment there. Now. Remember that's not a mexican american But florida is different than california or nevada or other places, but the trend is there and he's so it's cuban dominican Nicaraguan, el salvador, nicaraguan, puerto venezuelan Okay.
All right. Still impressive. Over half of the, uh, over half [00:34:00] of women voters, close to 60 percent of, uh, suburban voters, over half of independent voters, obviously one Miami Dade, uh, which is a big deal that you've done a number of races in Florida. You ran Jeb's campaigns in Florida. What's your, like, what was juggernaut?
Well, I think, um, used incumbency. Well, the state is turning more red and What the Democrats never learned is that the South Florida vote is not an identity vote. It's an economic issues and kind of small business conservative, culturally conservative vote. And remember, DeSantis has Hispanic roots, so he has a connection there.
And culturally, he kind of knows what to do. There is a protest vote against Democratic li liberalism in South Florida and I think he fanned the fires adroitly. Andy outspent his opponent 48 to one. You know, they had a massive spend and he was viewed as competent. Competent during covid competent during the recent hurricane.
So he was like a good, he was a good governor. There's [00:35:00] just no real dent on him other than you wouldn't want be trapped in an elevator with him for an hour. You know, he's just kind of an uninteresting human, I think. Now, the Pauls will tell you, who know him, and they'll look around to make sure nobody can hear him talk, that he doesn't believe anything.
You know, he'd be Bernie if that was the route forward. And then they tell me, you Trump hater, you know, you shouldn't talk him up, he doesn't believe anything. I go, well, I'll take a, I'll take a dire cynic over a crazy person any day. Because I think in the last minute, the cynic will make the smart move for their own survival and career.
Well, a crazy guy, you can't game out. But, um, you know, he's, he's going to be the thing now for a while. And you're going to see Trump validate that by attacking him. This DeSantis thing is only chapter one. Now let's talk about some of the other Republicans, and I don't want to talk about too many of them because I fear that we're going to get a reprise of 2016 primaries where you have Trump versus a million non Trumps, and he gets to carve up the field.
Yeah, the plurality theory. It's a real [00:36:00] danger. On the other hand, I think the preseason will reward people playing with it. The actual running, I think there'll be a real mentality of winnowing down fast. And so there's going to really more so more so than twice on the donor side. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah on the donor side I believe you know, we're see but I think people get what happened last time and the question is a little bit does you know?
Does the party now which is still at the RNC level? There's a fair amount of Trump control there, but there's some regulars, too Do they start looking at fooling with the nomination calendar a little bit? What is that? What is the implication? Well, making it more competitive. Yeah, well, New Hampshire is going to have to protect itself because if Iowa goes away on the Democratic side, um, you know, there's going to be a big war over a more diverse state early.
Will it be a caucus? Will it be what? And then, you know, the Trump people will try to figure out what is our best path. Is South Carolina still good? [00:37:00] Do we want that after new hampshire that new hampshire's where trump could be vulnerable You know, they they may try to change the the platform a little and then you've got the risk of a favorite son What if chris sununu runs in new hampshire?
He's sniffed around this thing a little bit then he devalues new hampshire That's the best place to slow trump down So you think about what's the second state if you wound trump in new hampshire where you can deny him a comeback? It's probably not south carolina. And and anyway, so there there's some There's going to be some maclinations now because they're going to allow to be quiet anti trump conspirators because trump the pragmatists will say this guy's gonna We're going to nominate the one guy the democrats can beat and the 19 other candidates all have one united interest Which is for trump to you know, go away or lose or be indicted or whatever.
Yeah, I mean cruz is out running obviously You know, um, Hawley is sneaking around, Cotton took himself out of it, Uh, Marco hasn't given up the dream, but I don't know how he gets past DeSantis, you know, there are But the ones that are interesting to me are, in [00:38:00] addition to DeSantis, are people like Glenn Youngkin, Tim Scott Yeah.
Maybe Mike Pompeo. What's your, what are your reactions to these? I don't think Pompeo has a base, so I think that's make believe. I think Tim Scott is real and interesting. I don't know if he has the killer instinct, but, uh, And Junkin, there's a whiff of cynicism to the Junkin thing, I think. But, he's interesting.
Um, you know, I think either Kinzinger or Cheney will run just to raise hell. I don't, I don't see a lot of delegates, but they could be catalytic. Larry Hogan's out there, same thing. Yeah, but isn't the risk with one of them is that they wind up taking, say, three to five percent of the vote in a certain state, and that vote could go to a DeSantis or Yunkin or Scott, and it's sort of wasted on, uh, Yeah, I agree with that, but the invisible primary of law is now a big open public show You can run raise hell do things and not be on the ballot not get any votes and still do 90 percent of what you're there To do uh, you show up at every debate trashing [00:39:00] trump.
You're just a huge fan in the ass and then you go away Because in the old days, you'd sneak around quietly and try to line it up, and then you'd pop out in a primary, and that would be the test. Now you could be the national noisemaker for a year on cable TV and go away before the primary. Hell, I might run in New Hampshire, eliminate the middleman.
And you got a house. You got a house. You should go do it. I could vote there. Yeah, I'd like to. All right. So, but, but point is, it's different now. You can have a preseason life and you don't have to be a spoiler getting 5 percent of the vote that you really want to go to the leading anti Trump. And so to what end?
Just to raise your profile? Yeah, to megaphone. I mean, that, that, that. They're, they're, they're, if you were signing up, stop Trump people, you're going to have two kinds of recruits. One is going to be people who think that we ought to be a rule of law party and we ought to be classic conservatives, not populist louts.
That world exists now. It's probably growing. But the other world is regular Republican politicians who don't like losing. Political parties don't exist to lose. And so there are going to be [00:40:00] plenty of people who aren't ideological Trump haters. But it's like, let's pretend the Republican Party is the Sopranos.
If Tony starts getting everybody indicted and we're all going to jail, eventually there's a meeting of all the lieutenants, we gotta do something about Tony, it's bad for everybody here. So, you know, that's, that's Trump's real jeopardy. He's a loser. Uh, okay, I want to just before we let you go, so we talked a little bit about the Latino vote in, uh, in Florida nationally, and you talked about young voters turning out, which is a good news story for Democrats.
So any other big demographic trends we're, we're learning from this? Yeah, we're going to watch Clark County because if Laxalt wins. So in Nevada. Yeah, Nevada. My guess is the massive, important, unionized culinary union, Democratic vote in Clark County will have underperformed for her, which is kind of double interesting because she has Latino heritage.
And that'll be it. Cortez Mastro, the incumbent Democratic Senator. Yeah, the trend we see in [00:41:00] Dade, in parts of Orlando, we saw it in South Texas, though I haven't looked at those races now, may not be as tight this year. But there's been a trend there. One, one thing to remember is that the Latino vote is never monolithic, not only ethnically, but generationally.
And if you're, if you have recent heritage in LA and we have a huge El Salvadoran vote here, which is a little different, you know, there's a Nicaraguan vote, but the Mexican American vote here has fairly recent connections, much of it, and not all the votes, but culturally. You know, interacts with the voting part of it in Mexico, which has always had a corporatist political system where the big government takes care of you.
There's an obligation. So they tend here to start more left of center based on that experience or that history and their family mythology. Not so much true of the entrepreneurial, uh, Cubans and El Salvadorans, uh, and now in Florida, Venezuelans to escaping a dictator of the left. So, you know, the question is, well, the, the, the California Nevada vote.
Follow that evolution [00:42:00] that you see earlier in, uh, in Florida and kind of in the mid intermediate in Texas where it's been assimilated longer, uh, and it has multi generational roots, uh, which has grown into a more both parties vote. So, you know, it's a, it's a big, important moving thing, but when we take Nevada apart, which is really what's going to decider or not, um, that Clark County.
Latino vote, uh, that's to me and young turnout, uh, are going to be the two big drivers. Last question, if you're advising, I know you're not, if you're advising the House Republican leadership now, the new majority, how would you advise them to use these next two years if their goal is to prevent the Biden administration from doing anything crazy?
which should be pretty easy to do and set up the Republican party for a competitive 2024. What should, what should the house Republican, by the way, I know this will be [00:43:00] very hard because McCarthy is going to have a. Smaller margin than we expected, which means some of the more, um, colorful characters are going to have outsized influence in that majority.
Yeah, he lost most of his adults, you know, which is a problem. Uh, they've got to get out of the crazy business, which means out of the crazy investigations, out of primary politics. And have a bumper sticker agenda for meat and potato stuff and strategically oppose things. Not be the, the, the wild eyed talk radio host turned into a congressional party.
And not feed the disgust people have with endless process squabbling in Washington. Get back into meat and potato stuff, family friendly. Uh, and censor the kooks. The kooks are a problem. Now, I know the Freedom Cau I mean, McCarthy may not be a speaker. They have a lot of power in the caucus, but the kooks are a problem.
They're ruining the brand. What about a serious Oversight committee investigation, serious, uh, like 9 11 commission style of how [00:44:00] all the money was spent during COVID. We pumped out billions and trillions of dollars. Yeah, no, no, there, there's a story there, but you know, it all goes to Fox. It's the same feedback loop.
The problem is that American voters have a name for congressional investigations, which is typical political bullshit. You know, where one group of guys in red ties are yelling at another group. And it just doesn't have the traction. The whole investigation thing has been watered down because there's an investigation every two minutes.
And the average voter is saying, this is all a game they play, and meanwhile I'm working two jobs for 5 gas. Uh, so, you know, nothing's worse than a pompous congressman puffing into a microphone about, I want to know, cause it's become a self parody. So connect to people's actual lives in regular English and get out of the bug eyed, crazy talk radio thing.
Um, and, and put a hood MGT and a few more. Hopefully Bobert won't be back. Hood them like Falcons to shut them up. Little party discipline. Bring an old [00:45:00] fashioned speaker back. Put him in an office with no air conditioning. Get him outside the building. We got to fix the brand or we had a taste of the future tonight.
Is there any world in which Trump decides not to run? Oh, yeah. Yeah, you know the the the dusty book they pull out in the Star Chamber right about now or six months ago. The Nixon book is all right. We don't put presidents in jail. But they agree to go away quietly. It's retirement time now. He may be too irrational, but I think he could make a lot of Lee.
I think there's a master plea deal. The problem is nobody trusts crazy Trump to keep his word. I mean, Nixon was, you know, um, a Gandhi compared to this guy and much more trustworthy and he'd take the deal. I don't know if Trump will ever do that. He might be a mad dog. So there's, you know, politically, metaphorically, not in real life, cause it'd be a felony, but, uh, you know, maybe he has to go behind the barn.
But there, if he's civilized, there is a way out, but he has to go away. And I don't think with his madness and his need of [00:46:00] attention, um, I don't think he'll ever do that, but yeah, yeah, he may, he may try that. He could say, I mean, I look, if I were a Trump guy, which is impossible, but if I were to say, Mr.
President, you know, there's another way you could run and probably lose and be humiliated and, uh, all that. Or you can announce you're not running and just just make your all power and he'd believe this it wouldn't really be true But you're all powerful endorsement. You're still in the center of attention.
You still have the most power in the party You don't have to put anything on the line and maybe back channel We can make a little deal to make the legal trouble go away. You're still mr. Big number one. Oh, wow All right, we'll leave it there. Maybe I should have left it on, on your comparing Nixon to Gandhi, but uh I'd take Nixon in a minute right now.
He'd handle this Chinese problem too, which is nothing to sneeze at right now. Right, right. Let's ban TikTok. That's my other big idea. Oh yeah? Yeah! Oh, it's a total mind twist. You ever seen the Chinese TikTok? It's algebra lessons. And you think, you think the U. S. [00:47:00] government could, U. S. government could get away with just saying We're shutting it down.
By the way, I've heard a lot of right of center policymakers make this argument. Yeah, you look, we have a lot of reasons why it's hard to cut free speech, but TikTok is a cywar weapon. All right, Mike, we'll leave it there. Thanks for taking the to Singapore. They understand order. Look, just keep us posted on L.
A. You can't leave L. A. We need you there. I'm excited about Mayor Caruso, but we'll see. Take a look, check the L. A. County Register of Voters. You have to go about 800 offices down to find L. A. Mayor, because it's only part of the county. But check it Friday afternoon. That's when you're going to have a much better grip on what's going to happen here.
Alright, from your lips to God's ears. Thanks, Mike. Alright, you know what I always love to do? Thanks for doing this, appreciate it. Alright, dump Trump.
That's our show for today. To keep up with Mike Murphy, you can follow him on Twitter, at MurphyMike, that one's easy to [00:48:00] remember. You can also follow his work at the USC, University of Southern California's Center for the Political Future. Also on Twitter at USCPOL future, and of course, subscribe to the Hacks on Tap podcast.
Call me back. It's produced by Ilan Benatar. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor.