Israel’s Next Government - with Yaakov Katz
Yaakov Katz – Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post and a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – returns to our podcast.
Earlier, Yaakov Katz served as The Jerusalem Post’s military reporter and defense analyst. He is the author of "Shadow Strike: Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power" and co-author of two books: "Weapon Wizards - How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower" and "Israel vs. Iran - The Shadow War"
Transcript
DISCLAIMER: THIS TRANSCRIPT HAS BEEN CREATED USING AI TECHNOLOGY AND MAY NOT REFLECT 100% ACCURACY.
[00:00:00] In a future election. It's a one man show. Yair Lapid today is the unequivocal leader of the center left bloc, and basically of the largest party. He brought Yair Shatid, his party, up from 19 to 24 seats. He grew in a significant way. And whenever the next election will take place, he'll be able to say, look, it's me.
Against Bibi. Forget about the small parties, now it's just about me.
So finally, Israel has what appears to be a stable government. After five elections in 44 months, it looks like there will not be a sixth election around the corner. That's the good news. Although there are a lot of questions about some of the political figures that will be populating it, who have a history.
Of some pretty inflammatory rhetoric and actions We'll dive into this [00:01:00] issue as well as what it means for netanyahu's ability to manage his new government And what are the geopolitical issues he's going to have to deal with and all these considerations? He's going to have to balance from iran to russia ukraine to his relationship with washington to his relationships with the broader Arab world and continued normalization.
To help us understand these issues, we are joined by Yaakov Katz, editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post, who's been on this podcast before. Before becoming editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post, Yaakov served as the paper's military reporter and defense analyst. He's the author of Shadow Strike, Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power.
And he's the co author of two books, Weapon Wizards, How Israel Became a Hightech. Military superpower and israel versus iran the shadow war earlier in his career Yakov was a top advisor to naftali bennett who until recently was the prime minister of israel. This is call me back [00:02:00] And I am pleased to welcome back to the podcast my friend yakov katz editor in chief of the jerusalem post who comes to us from Jerusalem, uh, after, I'm sure, a lot of sleepless nights, he's been working around the clock.
JPost. com has been covering this, uh, election and the post election intensely. Yaakov, thanks for being here. Great to be with you, Dan. Uh, okay, so we, we have a lot to cover. Let's start with what, in your view, is the biggest story or the biggest surprise coming out of this election. Well, I think there are two main stories here.
The first is Benjamin Netanyahu had an amazing comeback. He's the comeback kid. Right. He's been out now for 18 months. Israel has been through, this is the fifth election in the last three and a half years. He failed each time, each previous election to get to the needed 61 seats to have a majority [00:03:00] coalition in, in parliament in the Knesset.
And, and he pulled it off and he pulled it off against a lot of odds and a lot of people who were out to get him. Uh, and that has to be said, this is a big win for him. Right? 64 majority is big. People thought it might be 60 60. People said maybe he'll get to 61. No pollster predicted this outcome. And it's big.
And that has to be said. And he's going to be coming in with, with strength. The, the other big story. And, and, and, and it should be noted And it should be noted, before the election, when there was, there was a big question, would it be 60, would it be 61, would it be 59, I mean, I was in Israel a little over a week ago, and people were talking as though it were a realistic option, before the election, that Netanyahu may have to form a national unity government, that Netanyahu would have to form a government with some version of Gantz and Lapid, and that that's how That, I'm just making, I mean, just to put an exclamation point after your point, it's like, that's how the degree to which people had [00:04:00] not foreseen this scenario.
Or, or Dan, we were going to go to a sixth election. People have, people were talking about how this is the gateway to the sixth election, right? So no one expected such a big win for, for Bibi and, and, and this joins, this connects to the next part, which is the big story, which is, you know, there's Itamar Ben Gvir, which a Big spotlight has been put on this guy, uh, as the fire brand kind of far right member of the potential Netanyahu government.
But, but let's also just put into context, this is going to be the most right wing government in Israeli history. This is going to be the most religious government in Israeli history. There, there are 18, 19 seats of the ultra Orthodox. You add to it the 14 seats of the Religious Zionist, Smutschrich, Ben Gurion party.
That is 32 seats of, uh, religious people in a coalition. They are the majority of, of this coalition. And, and that says something about just if you are a secular [00:05:00] Israeli today in this country, you're probably a bit concerned right now. But, and I want to get to this. We will get to this. We were talking about it earlier.
We, we, we'll get to it in the, in this conversation. The fact that it is, the, this new government is populated by, uh, leaders so ideologically in this direction does not necessarily mean that's where the electorate is. Right, it's also hiccups in the, in the, um, electoral system. Okay, so Bibi's comeback is the big story.
Uh, Ben Gvir and the rise of Ben Gvir, and can you just explain a little bit about the rise of Ben Gvir, because this is a guy who, in recent elections, there was always a question about whether or not they'd even, he'd even meet the threshold to get into the Knesset. So he's gone from, you know, not that long ago, a total gadfly.
To a Kingmaker. Yeah, look, Ben Gvir was someone who, for many years, didn't make it into the Knesset. He, he's a rabble rouser. He's a [00:06:00] guy, I've known him, Dan, for over 20 years. I've known him from, from right wing demonstrations, from during the Gaza Strip disengagement. He was the guy who you'd call as a reporter to find out, Okay, where are people gonna be protesting tonight?
W W Where are people gonna be doing something a bit nuts and crazy? Right? That was what this guy was. And he, and, and, and, You know, he's a jovial character, he's fun, he's got a good personality, but he's a right wing extremist. I mean, you know, put it into its proper context. And explain what that means.
What do you mean? Basically what that means is Because, because, by the way, in the West, the term Israeli right wing extremist is thrown around a lot before being clear. I mean, right? 1977, Menachem Begin is elected. Prime Minister, first time Likud takes, you know, power in, in Israel, the cover of Time magazine, trouble in the promised land, you know, and they made, turned Begin into this, oh my gosh.
Right. Israel is completely set back. Uh, obviously, when Sharon came back to power, this was, it was also treated [00:07:00] like, this was a, this was, you know, he was gonna be a wrecking ball in the Middle East. Avigdor Lieberman, we've talked about, uh, former foreign minister, foreign defense minister, he's the finance minister, right, in the current government.
Uh, yeah, and he, uh, you know, he was, he was, he ran on, you know, loyalty tests for Israeli Arab citizens, and, you know, the death penalty for terrorists, and, which is just, it's current, it's not the policy in Israel, and positions that were viewed as very inflammatory, regardless of, uh, you know, whether or not he actually believed these things.
He ran on these issues, and And then the, you know, within three years of Begin getting elected, Israel had a peace deal with Egypt, you know, Ariel Sharon was the prime minister that pulled Israel out of Gaza. Uh, Avigdor Lieberman has now become oppositional to, uh, to Netanyahu and not from the right. So, the term right wing Yeah, well, no, no, but the [00:08:00] term right wing Israeli has kind of been thrown around for a long time.
And then it doesn't always stick the way it's initially, you know, characterized. So I just want to put Ben Gvir in that historical context. Now look, unless Ben Gvir makes a dramatic shift and changes and a huge 180, what I mean by that term is he is someone who all the people you mentioned before, they do believe to an extent.
In coexistence, they believe in a, some sort of resolution to the conflict that Israel still has with the Palestinian people. Ben Gvir talks about something much simpler, which is we need to restore deterrence. We need to scare them. They need to have the fear of God and of the Jewish people and the state of Israel in them.
He has a different vision for what that looks like. He wants to, and he openly says this, right? He said this in an interview just a couple of weeks ago, right before the election. Where he said, I want to establish in a new government a ministry of migration. I want to find a [00:09:00] way to get Palestinian Arabs in Israel and in the West Bank, Judea and Samaria to move outside of Israel.
And he was asked, what does that mean? Where would they go? Who would take them? He said, well, Europe needs, and in the term in Hebrew, so I'll just translate. He said, Europe needs working hands. And I'm watching this on TV. And I'm saying to myself, working hands in Europe, like, was it not that long ago that we were told as the Jewish people that we need to go work somewhere in Europe, you know, and, and the silence that you hear is, is what's has legitimized this, uh, this type of rhetoric.
And, and it's a different level, Dan. It's not Begin, it's not Sharon. And you know, what's funny is when I say to people, Bibi is going to be the most left wing member of their government, of this government, they think it's crazy because to them Bibi is so right wing, but he's actually not. And Ben fears the real deal.
Bibi's very practical. Bibi, yeah. This idea that Bibi's an ideologue I've always found like laughable. There's not, [00:10:00] how can you say, I mean, he long is serving prime minister in Israeli history, so he has, Netanyahu has this. Very clear track record to look at, how he deals with crisis, after crisis, after crisis, geopolitical crises, local domestic political crises.
I mean, you can dislike BB, you can have issues with a whole range of issues around BB, but the idea that he's some adventuristic You know, bomb throwing ideologue is just inconsistent with the record. He's actually pretty moderate. He's moderate. He's hesitant to use force. He's had multiple. I mean, another thing that people forget, you know, they think like he's, you know, the greater Israel again, he just wants the so called occupation.
He wants to occupy the peasant people, all that kind of stuff. The guy has had numerous opportunities to pass the legislation in the Knesset with a majority that would allow him to annex and apply Israeli law to the West Bank. And he's never done it. And the reason is because he doesn't want to do it because ultimately he, he wants some sort of resolution that sees [00:11:00] Israel not have to be in control of millions of Palestinian Arabs.
That's not what Netanyahu wants. This government though. And this is where I think we need to, you know, kind of be maybe slightly concerned is, is a different animal right now. This is a new government where, because of how right wing it is, and because of Netanyahu's political, I'm sorry, legal, uh, situation, he's still on trial for fraud, breach of trust, and corruption, this is where it gets complicated, because he's going to want potentially legislation that will help his trial, and the other members of this government are going to want Some sort of, you know, benefit on their side and that could come in turn in, in, in the way of annexation in the way of Undermining the rule of law undermining the courts changing the balance of separation of powers in this country There's a lot that these guys could potentially go for okay.
Can you briefly describe? Netanyahu's where his legal process stands because You [00:12:00] referenced it, and it obviously is a factor in, in all his decision making here. Look, Netanyahu's trial is still continuing, uh, they've heard a lot of the testimony already in the case of 4000, which is, there's three cases, 1000, 2000, and 4000, 4000 is the bribery charge, the one that involved potential regulatory benefits to merge a telecommunications company into satellite TV company, Yes and Bezek, a bunch of years ago in exchange for positive coverage and what was known as WALA.
That's this very popular, uh, Israeli Hebrew website, news website. Um, they finished the testimony on that. They're hearing testimony and evidence now in case 1000, which is the gift, the graft probe. Um, that's one where he got hundreds and hundreds of thousands of shekels and dollars, I guess, of champagne and cigars and jewelry from different businessmen, particularly to Arnon Milton and James Packer.
And case 2000 is still out there. That's the one where he potentially, uh, he allegedly kind of engaged in a [00:13:00] maybe bribery scheme with the publisher of Yediotah Harnot, another, uh, very large Hebrew newspaper in this country. So there's still some time. It's rolling along. It's going to take time. There's a lot of evidence, a lot of, uh, witnesses, but it's, it's a thorn in Netanyahu's side, right?
And he, he, I mean, you know, three cases, severe corruption charges. He would love to be able to find a way. To, to get this thing to go away, right? And, and, and he might use this coalition to do that. So how does one do that? Look, there's something that we call, uh, in Hebrew, chokatz or fati, the French law, right?
What is the French law? There's a lot of French laws, but the French law is that the French have, uh, have a law that you can't, uh, investigate a prime minister while in office for alleged corruption charges that took place while, while that politician is in office. So Israel does not have a law like that.
And therefore you can be prime minister and you can. Come under investigation. We all know, Dan. I mean, you know, you know, as well as I do, all of our prime ministers pretty much have been under investigation in the last, you know, 20 years or so [00:14:00] and a hood. Omer went to jail and a hood. Omer eventually went to jail.
His crimes, though. Right. Were crimes that were committed before he became prime minister, when he was mayor of Jerusalem. Um, so they, they could pass that law, and that law could potentially also go retroactive, and it could then make the press, force the prosecution to stop the trial. Now he has said repeatedly during the campaign, Netanyahu, that he wouldn't allow any legal changes.
Correct. Uh, or new laws passed on, that would affect him, that would be retroactive. You some people believe that was just well, you know, he said he wouldn't want it and he's not asking him for it but some of the coalition partners or potential coalition partners particularly but sal smut rich who is the head of the of the party with, um, with Itamar Ben Gvir of the Religious Zionist Party has said that he is going to bring that type of legislation.
He's also going to bring another very controversial bill, which is to basically annul the, the, the charge or the crime [00:15:00] of breach of trust and fraud from political corruption. So basically, What, in the middle of a corruption, in the middle of a political corruption trial, the, the legislator would change the law, say this, this is no longer a crime, so what, what does the court do?
They can't continue a trial, even if they say it's not retroactive, there's no crime to, to, to have a court case about. So it would just leave case 4000, which is anyhow perceived to be maybe a, a, a, a case that has some holes in it. Um, basically, I, I, I, I don't think. And it's the slowest moving one. Correct.
And I, and that's, and I also don't think that Netanyahu, if these guys bring this legislation, I don't think he's going to say, no, I don't want it. Right. Of course he's going to want it because it would benefit him. Right. Okay. So, so bringing these political leaders into the fold, you know, is, is helpful to him on the legal front, but He's an adult.
He's a, he has a long history, uh, and a long track record of, as I said [00:16:00] earlier, uh, his experiences as a, as a, as a senior statesman, as a geopolitical strategist, and he's got now, he's now back in the seat. He's no longer in the opposition. So he's got to manage a lot of big problems. He's got to deal with Iran, right?
He's got to figure out, you know, what Israel strategy is vis a vis Gaza. He's got to deal with Russia Ukraine And obviously he's gonna have to deal with Washington And he's gonna have to deal with these Gulf states that he put so much effort into normalizing relations with so how does how does he?
Hold this all together. He's got a man because because you've said he used to be the most He used to be in between the left and the right in his coalitions. And now he's actually the most left wing member of his coalition for the first time. So he's gonna have to manage those internal dynamics, where there's huge pressure from the right, while he's dealing with all these Real prime ministerial day, you know, jobs in his day job of kind of dealing with the world It's not going to be an easy [00:17:00] juggling act And and I would say this is not the government than it's an a hole would have ideally wanted right?
He would have wanted a government He can have someone who looks good who's moderate who could go and be the face of Israel to Washington You know, he's had a Barack in the government before it's a people live in the he likes to have those kind of figures next to him Because they, they balance it out, and he's always, he's got, it's like a fig leaf to, to, to the rest of, to the West, so called, right, and to democratic administrations, which is what we have in Washington.
So just, just, just for our listeners, so, so Ehud Barak, former Prime Minister of Israel, in the late 90s, actually beat Netanyahu. Right, in 99. In 99, yeah, 1999, and was leader of the Labor Party. And then Netanyahu comes back to power close to a decade after losing to Barack, and he makes Barack defense minister.
And brings him into the government. So to your point, it really was a, not bipartisan, multi partisan coalition government. And he had someone perceived as to the left of him, as his defense minister. [00:18:00] Tzipi Livni. Was a player in the, in the, uh, Kadima party, the moderate party, also very, at the time, oppositional to Likud, and he had her in the coalition.
So he's always liked having a blend of this kind of hard right, right, and left. In the government and you're saying now he he's always had that and he now he doesn't have that so so it's gonna it's gonna make things difficult for him and you know, like, who do you send to talk to the Blinken? Who do you send to talk to Jake Sullivan?
Who do you send to Europe? Right? Uh, when when they're gonna when the when the Americans and the Europeans are going to be asking Israel about the Palestinians, what do you say there's no one in government who is of the moderate. Kind of cloth, right? That you could say, no, we're actually, you know, yeah, we have disagreements.
No, there's no disagreements. Everyone's pushing you in one direction and, and, and that's going to put a pressure on him, by the way. I mean, you know, the Palestinians are not saying this publicly, but they're not, they're not upset [00:19:00] about this government, even though it's so right wing because for them.
Until now, because it's always been a government in Israel that kind of plays the game, maybe from their perspective and says the right thing, but doesn't maybe act on it enough for the Palestinians, but it's good enough for Washington. It's good enough for London. It's good enough for Paris. Um, it, the Palestinians are kind of in a weaker position, but today with this such a right wing government, the Palestinians, we have to say, look, we've told you these guys are not a peace partner.
And Israel has always been able to say, no, we are the partner. We want peace. We're our hand is stretched out. Netanyahu won't be able to do that today. What's he going to be able to say? I'm in favor of a two state solution with Itamar Ben Gurion, Bensal Smatresk, and his government. He's not going to be able to say that.
Right, he could never deliver the equivalent of the Bar Ilan speech in this environment. Never again. And, and, and that is going to be something that, by the way, this is what the people of Israel chose. And if the people and the majority of Israel asked for this government, so if this government decides, for example, and they will have the ability, Dan, to pass legislation.
To apply Israeli law and annex the West [00:20:00] Bank and Judea the Israeli settlements, if that's what they want to do. Cause it's just a matter of legislation in the Israeli Knesset. The world won't accept it, but Israel could do it. I'm not, I don't know if Netanyahu will, these guys will want to. What's going to stop, what is Israel going to be able to say to the world today?
No, we, we, we, we want peace. How? In what way? How? So, I mean, Netanyahu could say to Ben Gurion Smolterich, This is a powder cake. If you do this, this is explosive. Uh, so I know you can do it, but we actually can't do it. I mean, look, that's, that's my operating assumption of where he should be, am I wrong? Yeah, I mean, Netanyahu, I've heard from politicians who have been in his governments in the past, you know, he has this shtick that he does, and I, you know, you've been in the prime minister's office, you've seen he's got that big map up on the wall, right, you know, of the region, and he'll bring in a young Knesset member or politician who's a bit kind of off off the [00:21:00] path and he'll Sit them down and show them the map and he'll share with them some intelligence about Iran's nuclear program or Hezbollah trying to get its hands on precision guided munitions.
And he'll say, listen, we can't rock the boat now with the Americans. I'm, I'm doing something big right now. I'm trying to ensure that we stop this or we stop that. And if you guys do something, you know, you push me too far on the legal outposts or whatever, uh, it could, it could blow that up. And he, he.
He's it's worked for him in the past. Will that work with these guys? I don't know cuz they're they're a little different these guys right and in terms of you know Benveer he's wanted to change the status quo on the Temple Mount. That's something he's added advocated for. Can you explain what that means?
Look Benveer heads Is, is a frequent visitor to the Temple Mount right now, the Temple Mount, which Israel liberated or conquered, depending on what language you want to use back in 1967, uh, the holiest site to the Jewish people, um, is, is, is a site that's very contentious because of the [00:22:00] fact that the Palestinians, they have the Al Aqsa Mosque in the, in the Dome of the Rock there, but it's controlled mainly by the Waqf, which is, uh, uh, under the jurisdiction of the Jordanian Hashemite kingdom.
and, Um, but Israel for many years has never really allowed Jews to pray there. It's visit, you can walk in certain areas, but you can't really pray there. In recent years, they've allowed some form of prayer, nothing with, you can't wear the tallit, you can't put on the tefillin phylacteries or anything like that.
You can't blow a shofar on the Temple Mount, you know, the horns ram that we blow on, on the new year of Rosh Hashanah, but you can do some sort of very kind of quiet. Uh, uh, prayer, Benver wants to build a synagogue there right now. I mean, it's a different look in principle. He's right. You know, it's, it's crazy that Jewish people can't pray in their holiest site in their own country.
On the other hand, we do have to be realistic and practical. Doing something like that could lead to a massive conflict between Israel and the Muslim world. I don't think we, we want that. So we have [00:23:00] to walk a very delicate balancing act and, and Ben Gvir, he's not of the diplomatic kind, right? He doesn't care for that.
He cares for what his. Party's name is Otzma Yehudit, Jewish power. That's what this is all about. I want to get to a couple of the other big problems. Netanyahu's going to have to deal with his, his prime minister while he's managing all this. The, you know, I mentioned Iran and Russia, Ukraine and broader relations, uh, in the Middle East.
But before I do that, I just want to get just a couple more analytical points about the outcome of these elections. I think it's important to point out that Likud actually, Likud, not the whole right wing block, Likud didn't do that much better. In this election, then in the last election, it got about, I was looking at the numbers, something like, in the last election I think they got 1 million, Likud got 1, which is 2021, 1, 066, 000 votes.
And this election, it's about the same, maybe even a little worse. [00:24:00] So it's, it's, it's even more than that. If you look at the block that Netanyahu has, which included the ultra Orthodox parties of United Torah, Judaism, and Shas, and the religious Zionist party of Smotryshyn, Ben Gvir, that block as a whole got about.
2 million and 70, 000 votes, more or less the, the, the other parties, which would have, you could say to some extent are under the center left block of Yar Lapid, the current and now outgoing prime minister got about 2, 065. 2 million, sorry, 65,000 votes. So explain how is it that they lost so big of just a difference of 5,000 votes, but the way it works here, so basically like something that's like a 0.3% difference from the last election to this election.
And you're talking about the difference between 52 seats was right. 54, yeah. Yeah. 50 that their block is about. Yeah. So, so 55, 4 or five. And, and the other guys are, you know, 64. And how did they lose in such a big way? And, and, and the reason is because. [00:25:00] Bibi knows how to arrange and organize his bloc, right?
So he worked very hard to get Smotrych and Ben Gvir to merge their parties. He worked very hard to keep United Torah Judaism together. It's also made up of two different factions. But explain why that's so important. Can you just explain? We've talked about this on this podcast, but just, just to refresh listeners.
Because the way it works in Israel. What's a different system here to cross the threshold and get into the Knesset. You have to get 3. 25 percent of the entire vote. So if a million people vote. Right. And in this case, we had about 5, 500, 000, 6, 000, 000 people who voted. You need to get 3. 25 percent just to make it into the Knesset.
That's the, that, that's the bare minimum. If you don't get that, you're out. And all those votes go to waste. So in the case of, for example, what happened with the Merit Party. So there's something like 40 parties that are actually running. Most of those parties are just one and two man. shows and they'll never get into the Knesset because even if they [00:26:00] got one percent of the vote, it's not enough.
It's not enough. If, even if they get 3. 24 percent of the vote, which would be the equivalent of, just numerically, would be the equivalent of getting north of, you know, three Knesset seats. Sorry, not enough. You went from being eligible for three Knesset seats to getting zero Knesset seats and that, Say, 150, 000 voters have voted for you, their votes are now completely wasted.
And that is, Dan, exactly what happened to the Merits Party. Merits got about 150, 000 votes. And Merits, just for our listeners, is a party that's a long standing party, far, way on the left. Correct. And, and they, it was assumed they would, They would play a role in a Lapid led, left of center bloc government that some of these smaller right parties are playing in the Netanyahu bloc.
That was, you know, that was part of Lapid's calculations. He would have these smaller parties. And what you're saying, Yakov, is merits didn't meet the threshold. So all those voters who would have been [00:27:00] fine with Lapid as prime minister, and certainly are hostile to the ideas of Netanyahu as prime minister, their votes are gone.
Waste gone and mean nothing. And therefore, uh, what also happens because of the system, because it's always percentages, it's, it's like, it's like a, it's kind of a seesaw, right? So if you have, if you lose 150, 000 votes on the left, effectively what that is, is it means that the piece of pie on the right is going to be worth a lot more because they're now, they got votes, their votes out of the bigger pie.
It's more and therefore it's going to be worth more and it's going to translate into more seats because suddenly the whole pie became much smaller because you just cut out a hundred and fifty thousand votes and and it's not just there was also the Arab parties that used to be a joint list they split ahead of the last election and that's how we got Mansoor Abbas who was the head of the ROM party that joined The Lapid Bennett government, but there was still a flank that did not.
They then split [00:28:00] that flank split into two. So you had three Arab parties that were running. One of them, Balad, also lost and didn't cross. And there went another 70, 80, 000 votes. So altogether, and I'm not sure that Lapid could have. Maneuvered the Arabs the way that Bibi was able to maneuver the ultra Orthodox, but he tried to get labor and merits to merge.
He brought Mirav Mikhali, the head of labor, to his office together with Zahava Galon, the head of merits. And Zahava Galon was in favor. She wanted to do it. She was ready to become number two. I didn't know that. So the head of merits is willing to merge. She was willing to merge. She recognized the threat and the, and the potential loss and just, this is the key.
If you get these smaller parties to merge. Correct. Then none of them, or the ones that merge at least, will not fall under the threshold because all their votes get consolidated. So guarantees those votes don't go to waste. That is why, I mean, Netanyahu was clever in anticipating this and got these smaller right wing [00:29:00] parties to merge.
And it's, it's, it's to the extent, Dan, that I heard one analysis, which, which I'm not a math guy, so I can't, I, you know, I can't check it. But. That had merits and labor merged and had ballad the third of the Arab parties not run separate You would have a situation right now. We're in the best case scenario for netanyahu.
It would be 60 60 Or even, it would be 60 to the center left and 59 to Netanyahu. And that would be a completely, completely different ballgame. So really, at the end, you can point a finger at Meir Avmichaeli, the leader of Labor, for saying, why did you refuse that merger? I mean, you know, it's all could've, would've, should've, but, but this has real life, uh, consequences, definitely for people who are center left voters.
Okay. So, I wanna get to Lapid, where he goes from here, but before we do that, you mentioned the Rom Party, Mansour Abbas, so his [00:30:00] significance, first Arab party to join an Israeli government and take on a role in a very important way, uh, for, to, in this current Israeli government. Uh, he, it's a, he leads an Islamist party, uh, I actually know him a little bit, he's a pretty, pretty interesting guy.
Uh, how did they do? They did better. This time, right? They did better. They got, yeah, they got to five seats. They went up one, um, which to an extent says that maybe his experiment of joining with the government and entering into coalition to get budgets, to help advance his people and his constituents. get resources, and get resources to his communities, to the Arab community.
That's what his message was. You see, his message was The Palestinian issue, which we Arab Knesset members have always been fighting for, that's important, but I have to worry about my Israeli Arab voters and my Israeli Arab residents. And that was the big kind of news that he came with. And it paid off for him, and he got extra votes, and he actually increased in power.
By the way, he could be, I mean, he's a potential [00:31:00] partner, Bibi had flirted with him. Back ahead after the last election in 2021, although Smotrych and Ben Gvir would not allow him to enter into a government. But, but also to be clear, he's different than how some of the other Arab political parties have played in Israel over the years, in that he says Israel's a Jewish state, we can, we as a community can live in a Jewish state, I'm not, he doesn't, he doesn't He doesn't, his political existence is not in, in, you know, is not adversarial to the, to Zionism, or the recognition of the Jewish state.
He's, Israel's a Jewish state, Israel's a democracy, I want to play in this democracy, I gotta, I gotta work to get resources and security and the rest to my community, and I do, it's better for me to be doing that from inside the government than the outside. Yeah, I can tell you that when, when, when that was happening in the beginning, when he kind of after the last election, and then in May of 2021, when there was that big guys operation that saw riots and mixed Arab cities, and he went to one synagogue in load in the city of load, which had been burned.
And he said, [00:32:00] we'll help rebuild it. This was Mansoor bus. I remember speaking with enough Tully Bennett. This was before he became prime minister. And he was saying, I don't understand how this guy is still alive. Like, how are they not killing him, right? He needs 24 7 security. Uh, it was, it was really, it was, it was an amazing moment in Israeli history to kind of see this type of Arab politician who wants to work together with the Jewish people and, and, and Jews who wanted to work together with the Arabs, right?
And now, unfortunately, I mean, I say this, you know, kind of my personal, unfortunately, that's Being thrown to the side right now. And, and that, that, that's an unfortunate consequence. Yeah. You're Lapeed. Yeah. So I, my impression was that he, my initial impression was that he came out of this much, this election much weaker because he wasn't able to engineer these.
Mergers on the on the left the way Netanyahu had engineered mediated mergers on the right and that there would be enormous backlash Against him, [00:33:00] uh, which would hamper his ability to be an effective, uh leader of the opposition, but you You actually think he comes out of this stronger? Look, he, he failed to an extent.
There's no question he lost this election. He's conceded already. Um, he failed to align the block in the way that Netanyahu did to preserve every vote. But on the other hand, I think that a loss is not the worst thing for him because What it does now, merits is out of the picture. Labor is down to four seats.
In a future election, it's a one man show. Yair Lapid today is the unequivocal, the, the, the, the one man leader of the center left bloc, and basically of the largest party. He brought Yeh Shatid, his party, up from 19 to 24 seats. He grew in a significant way. And, and, and that's something that he'll be able to ride to.
Whenever the next election will take place, I'll be able to say, look, it's me against Bibi. Forget about the small parties. Now it's just about me. And that we'll be able to get all these [00:34:00] merits voters and all these labor voters to ditch their small parties, potentially throw their support behind them and maybe grow him to become the biggest party in Israel.
Dis, you know, may hate Netanyahu, but he truly disrespects Yair Lapid. Yair Lapid. Yeah. That's, they do not like each other too much. Um, that's, that's an understatement, but Benny Gantz right now is, um. Someone who is definitely not happy with these results. He is the first target for Netanyahu as someone who could potentially enter the coalition and maybe come instead of Ben Gvir, right?
Now, it's a little complicated, right? The Americans would love to see Benny Gantz come into the coalition. break his campaign promise not to sit with Netanyahu. He did it before. You remember Dan in 2020 when he came into the government under because of COVID 19 and an emergency government and [00:35:00] Netanyahu basically tricked him and cheated him and took us to another election and didn't rotate as he had promised to do.
Uh, so Benny Gantz, because of being burned once, he doesn't want, you know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice already, shame on me. So he doesn't want to have to get to that point, but. Uh, it is possible, and I, I think the Americans are going to be putting a lot of pressure on Gantz to come in and basically save the day.
And let me say just one thing about Gantz. He, he really is, I don't think he's a good politician. I think he ran a terrible campaign. He fought more with Lapid than he should have fought more with, with Bibi, uh, to take votes. His whole thing was take votes from the right, not try to take votes within the bloc.
But on the other hand, he's a true patriot. And you can't, uh, You can't really doubt his sincerity. He really puts the country first, I think, to a large extent. And that's why I, even though I think he, it would be again, a betrayal of his voters, if he were to decide to enter an it's any old government, I wouldn't put it past him.
I think if he was, if he's late at night and he's [00:36:00] thinking, what do I do? Do I let Benver take over or do I come in and try to stop that? I could see him making the decision to go for it, even with the political price. And it, and it, it addresses this need that Netanyahu's often had, right? It gets him someone to the left of him into his government.
Exactly. Although, I do have to say, just mathematically for a moment, it's not simple. Because while Ben Gvir and Smatric are 14, and Benny Gantz is 12, so you say if Bibi already has 64, he brings in Benny Gantz instead of Smatric and Ben Gvir, so he's not 64, he's a coalition of 62. Not a big difference, right?
The problem is that Benny Gantz is not really 12. Benny Gantz is 6. Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff, and Matan Kahana, who used to be with Bennett, are two free agents. And then there's another four, which belong to Gidon Tsar, the former Likudnik, who broke away from Likud, ran on his own, now the justice minister, and now merged with Benny Gantz for his collection.
Served in the Bennett Lapid government. Correct. Gidon [00:37:00] Saar might not go for it. Gadi Eisenkrantz might not go for it. So then all Benny Gantz really is is six. Six is not enough to make a difference. Got it. Okay, so now let's, let's go through these hot spots. Uh, based on your, based on all these political dynamics Netanyahu has to manage, and based on your deep knowledge as an observer of Netanyahu over many years, um, what happens Uh, with regard to Netanyahu slash Israel on Iran.
Look, the policy stayed the same. They never really were different, the governments. Uh, the Lapid and Bennett government, we have to say, did a good job in stopping the disastrous, uh, return to the JCPOA, to the 2015 nuclear deals the Biden administration really initially wanted to do. They had a very good, uh, dialogue with the Biden folks, uh, and they were able to do it without.
Escalating without getting things to blow up on the Israeli U S relationship. So really hats off to them on that. Netanyahu, of course, wanted the same outcome. I don't know that he would have gone about [00:38:00] it the same way, but his tactic might've been different, but the outcome is good for him too. And we're going to see a continuation of that policy, right?
I think that Netanyahu, of course, does not want an Iran deal. Uh, and he's going to work with the administration very carefully on that. The one. Difference I would expect is just in kind of the tone of the way he works with Biden and the Democrats, right? We all remember how he was with Barack Obama, how he was around the Iran issue with Barack Obama.
It was a very tense moment in Israeli us, uh, history. And in that the history of our joint, uh, shared relationship, which is of such critical importance, I think definitely to Israel, but also to the United States, uh, Netanyahu. It'll be interesting to see whether he's coming in as kind of, you know. a, a, to appease, to, to get along, to be kind of a convenient partner, or does he want to fight a bit?
And I think the Biden folks are a bit concerned [00:39:00] what, what exactly they're, they got waiting for them. How does Netanyahu manage Russia Ukraine, and does he do anything different from the Bennett Lapid government, or Lapid Bennett government? Again, I don't think so. I think the policies, and this is, you know, Dan, it touches on a bigger question.
So what's, you know, someone could say, so Yaakov, what's the difference between these guys? And, and the honest answer is that there's not a big difference. Right, and policy. By the way, I try to make this point to American audiences all the time. I had to give a talk yesterday. I try to make this point. On the major issues, there's basically a consensus in Israeli politics.
So people think Israeli politics is so polarized. It is, in a sense, but not necessarily around these big issues. It's polarized around figures like Bibi, anti Bibi, pro Bibi. People have very strong views, but on Iran, Russia, Ukraine. Yeah, no, I gave a talk also the other night, the day after the election, to a group of American, uh, actually pastors who were visiting Israel, and they were asking about Iran.
And I gave, I explained to them [00:40:00] and they said, but we don't understand. It's, it's the most important issue. How is there not a policy difference? And I said, cause they're just, there isn't, everyone kind of agrees and sees things the same way. So on Russia Ukraine, look, Netanyahu has always had a good relationship with Putin.
He's had a good relationship with Zelensky. Will he be the guy who supplies and delivers weapons to the Ukrainians as they've been. Practically begging Israel to do, I don't know, because ultimately he also recognizes he was the man who built the de confliction mechanism that has worked so well for Israel in Syria that with the Russians, because the Russians control Syria, that has allowed Israel to continue to take out Iranian targets in Syria over the last few years, is he going to be the one who's going to throw that to the side to be able to give it back?
Uh, Ukraine, some defense missile defense systems as they ask, I don't think so. He's always been cautious on those issues and he's always been very careful not to rock the boat, not to turn Putin into an enemy, not to turn anyone else into an enemy, [00:41:00] not China, not America. I don't see him changing any, anything too dramatic there.
Last question, and then we'll let you go, because I know we're bumping up against, uh, Shabbat, where you are. Uh, Continued normalization in the Middle East between Israel and basically the Sunni Gulf nations. Netanyahu played a key role in normalization with the Emiratis, with the Bahrainis, and other, kind of, Morocco.
Not in the Sunni Gulf, but Um, obviously the, the big prize is Saudi Arabia, that I think will take some time, but I, but I think it's on a trajectory. So I've, I have two reactions, uh, I've always been struck when I talk to golf leaders, Sunni golf leaders, that they all like Netanyahu. They all thought he was the man who took it to Washington and, you know, to tear down the Iran deal and, and do things like give an address to the joint session of Congress criticizing the, the, the, the foreign policy priority of a sitting American administration.
These are things these [00:42:00] Gulf countries could never do. And they were sort of in awe that Netanyahu could do this and they rallied behind him. So in a sense, there's a, there's a strength aspect kind of putting Israel on the map that they partnered with and wanted to piggyback onto. On the other hand, I got to believe Netanyahu's pressures from the right, the Ben Gurion Smoltrich pressures on issues related to Arab rights and Palestinian, future of the Palestinian issue in Israel's backyard is going to create problems for these.
Arab countries. So where do you see Netanyahu taking the normalization campaign? Look, it'll be hard to imagine right now that with this type of coalition, Israel will be able to normalize relations with additional countries. Uh, because of Smotrich and Benver's presence in the coalition and no progress and no movement and no kind of.
Gift that Israel fig leaf that Israel can give to or olive branch to anything. I'm the Palestinians. It, I don't see how the Saudis can come. I don't see anyone else can come. On the other hand, [00:43:00] what we also have to keep in mind, Dan, and you know this better than I do, is that the Americans played an extremely important role and without an active American role in bringing the sides together, it's not just going to happen on its own.
Right? So people ask me all the time, why aren't the Saudis normalizing relations? And I say to them, look, they could potentially, but you would need Biden to get really deep involved, really deeply involved to give something that the Saudis would want to get them to come together. We haven't seen that kind of action by this administration in the same way that the Trump administration did it.
And, you know, again, it's. It's a, yes, I think it's a bit of criticism on my part of them, but I also, it's just not important to them like it was, for example, for the Trump folks. So, uh, I don't know that we can expect much to move. And by the way, it's, it's an interesting, it's an interesting criticism and question of we're two years now after the normalization of ties between Israel and the UAE and [00:44:00] Bahrain and Morocco.
How come no more countries have come yet? Right? And, uh, and that says something about, you know, the U. S. involvement in all of it. And maybe, as you say, also, you know, kind of, if nothing's gonna move on the Palestinians, why would anyone else come? So, I think we'll have to suffice with what we have for now, which is not a little.
Don't expect any big moves. And, and to be fair, I mean, I'm critical of a lot of what the Biden administration does in foreign policy, and I do think they could have made normalization And the kind of follow on to the Abraham Accords, more of a priority, but, but the Saudis have made some concessions. Yes.
Uh, that are, you know, I mean, We can fly over Saudi Arabia. It's not called diplomatic recognition. That's true. Right. What, yeah, yeah, so there's, there's, there have been some positive steps. Yakov, we'll leave it there. You've been very generous with your time. Uh, I hope you get to relax, uh, over Shabbat and not follow Israeli politics.
By the way, that's the silver lining, Dan, of this government. I say to people, even those who are upset, and there's a lot of people who are upset and worried, the silver [00:45:00] lining is they will have a government and we just won't have another election in just a few months. Thank God for that, right? That's gotta be worth something.
And maybe during that time, we can all ponder what reforms the Israeli electoral system needs, uh, to get out of the situation where Israel has. Five elections in 44 months, but as I keep pointing out not as bad as some other countries The Brits have had five prime ministers in seven years. You guys have only had three prime ministers in seven years So, you know by that comparison you your democracy looks, you know, healthy and smooth running Um, okay, Yaakov, thanks again.
Thank you, Dan. We'll look forward to having you back.
That's our show for today. To keep up with Yaakov, you can follow him on Twitter, at YaakovKatz, Y A A K O V K A T Z. You can also, of course, follow all his work at jpost. com, and you can order all of his books, all of which I highly [00:46:00] recommend, at your favorite independent bookstore. Or at Barnes and Noble or that e commerce site.
I don't know. I'm hearing less and less about it these days, but I think they call it Amazon. Call Me Back is produced by Ilan Benatar. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor.