"Silver Linings" in Israel's crisis? with Yaakov Katz
Yaakov Katz – Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post and a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – returns to our podcast.
Earlier, Yaakov Katz served as The Jerusalem Post’s military reporter and defense analyst. He is the author of "Shadow Strike: Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power" and co-author of two books: "Weapon Wizards - How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower" and "Israel vs. Iran - The Shadow War"
"Shadow Strike: Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power"
"Weapon Wizards - How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower"
Transcript
DISCLAIMER: THIS TRANSCRIPT HAS BEEN CREATED USING AI TECHNOLOGY AND MAY NOT REFLECT 100% ACCURACY.
[00:00:00] And I went to a bunch of these protests to watch and see who are the people who are coming. These are mostly, almost exclusively secular Israelis. These are the people who come from Tel Aviv, Herzliya, Ramat Hasharon, Hoda Sharon. These are people who are middle to upper class. And these are the people who we were told for years now.
These are these Tel Avivians who are disconnecting from Israel, are becoming post Zionists, are more interested in high tech and traveling overseas and getting a second passport from a European embassy than about fighting for Israel. Well, here we have They're reclaiming our symbol, the Israeli flag, they're out on the streets, they're not post Zionists.
These are people who either never left Zionism, or have re found their Zionism. And I think that this movement Whether you agree with them as protestors or you don't, there's something inspiring of watching so many people fight for their country. And I wonder, how will we channel this power that we now have in this country?
Will it just be [00:01:00] wasted on a couple of new politicians? Or, Can we change the narrative? Can we tell a new story of what our raison d'etre is to be here in Israel? What is our purpose as a country? Why do we exist?
There is a patriotic awakening in Israel right now. We need to make the most of it. That is the title of a column by Yaakov Katz, frequent guest on the Call Me Back podcast and editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post. It's actually the title of his last column. as editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post.
He'll continue serving as editor in chief for the near future, but he's made the decision to step down. He'll continue writing for the Jerusalem Post, but he's starting a new project that will preclude him from running the paper day to day in the long run. But this column that he writes, which we talk about today, [00:02:00] we actually had this conversation when he was in the midst of writing it, are about the silver linings he sees in the midst of this judicial reform chaos.
We've been witnessing in Israel over the last few months from Yaakov's perspective. It's not all bad news There are some encouraging signs about the future of Israel the future of Zionism the future of the Jewish state As regular listeners of our podcast know before becoming editor in chief at the Jerusalem Post Yaakov served as the paper's military reporter and defense analyst He's the author of a terrific book called Shadow Strike Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power and co author of two books Weapon Wizards How Israel Became a High Tech Military Superpower, which I had reviewed way back for the Wall Street Journal And also Israel versus Iran, the Shadow War.
Yaakov also previously served as a top advisor to former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. [00:03:00] So as a journalist, an author, and a former political and policy advisor to a former Israeli leader. Yaakov has a lot of perspective on what's happening right now in Israel and where it's going. Finding silver linings in the judicial reform chaos.
This is Call Me Back.
And I'm pleased to welcome back to the podcast my longtime friend Yaakov Katz, editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post, prolific writer, author, uh, definitely a friend of the podcast. Folks, uh, often want to hear what Yaakov thinks when we're discussing. Affairs of State, uh, as it relates to Israel. And so, Yaakov, thanks for joining us, uh, late in the night over there in Jerusalem, after what has been a pretty intense few days.
Always a pleasure to be with you, Dan. Uh, alright, Yaakov, I got a lot I want to unpack with you, but before we start, or before we start unpacking, just give me a sense of where things [00:04:00] are now. Uh, middle of the week, following, uh, uh, an intense weekend of the Of the defense minister being fired or mostly fired, but may not be now at this point formally, uh, fired, uh, the prime minister announcing that he will pause.
Uh, pause the legislative process on his judicial reforms. Uh, seemly, some seeming bubbling up of tension between, uh, the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government. Where are things from where you stand? Well, uh, you know, from a, the, the big picture. In the issue of Netanyahu and his coalition still moving ahead with the judicial reform that seems to have been moved away or back and is put on hold at least until the Knesset resumes its sessions after the Passover holiday, which would be the end of April, beginning of May, and then they will [00:05:00] reignite this, this legislation and this legislative process.
Now, what that did was it basically also kind of took the air. Um, Out of the protests, the protests that we're seeing. About 300, 000 Israelis. Remarkable, Dan. Right? 300, 000 Israelis almost on a weekly basis. Some would even say more. But if we go with the, with the 300, 000 number, just to kind of give our listeners some perspective and context, that's about two and a half percent of our population.
That would be like eight million Americans taking to the streets on a weekly basis for three months straight. It's unimaginable. Every, every Saturday night, every Saturday. And what was most striking about the last protest, I guess that was on Sunday night, is that was spontaneous. That wasn't organized.
That was spontaneous. Right. There'd been a rhythm where every Saturday night after Shabbat, there were these protests going back to early January. But what was unique about Sunday night, it wasn't part of the regular rhythm. Uh, people just literally, the prime minister announced he was firing Gallant, the defense minister, and then WhatsApp messages started going out and [00:06:00] You know, people started just chatting.
And within minutes, you had tens of thousands of people on the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. It was, it's astonishing. I mean, what they've been able to do, which is the whole other question, is, is you know, bring to life this amazing movement, whether you agree with these people or you don't, uh, who are protesting, but it's really, it's, I mean, you can't, you, you see Israelis who are just not indifferent today.
Israelis are care deeply about what's happening to the country, but, but where the reforms are now, so they've been put on hold. There was already one round of talks that were held and hosted by president Herzog at his home. Uh, where you had sides for, you have the side of Likud, you have the side of the main opposition parties, Yishatid led by Lapid and National Unity led by Benny Gantz.
Herzog has also held additional meetings with air parties, with the Labor Party, and there's supposed to be more meetings and more talk of possible compromise. What people need to realize, Dan, is that you can [00:07:00] really slice this reform a million different ways, right? You know, take, for example. The override bill, which was one of the key pieces of legislation that the coalition wanted, which is that if the court strikes down a law The Knesset can re legislate it with a simple majority.
Okay, they wanted a simple majority. Maybe agree to, uh, five more, six more, ten more Knesset members. I mean, you know, those are little details, but some of that would be enough to ease the concerns. When it comes to judicial appointments, right, the Knesset, the coalition wanted exclusive majority on the appointments committee.
Maybe they could agree and say, you know what, we'll have the majority of people, but we'll always have to have buy in from at least one member of the opposition or one judge. In other words, there's a lot they could do that would be seen as giving in and making a concession and easing the fears that a lot of people here have.
I just want to take apart these issues just for a moment [00:08:00] before we get into our other, uh, topics. On the reforms, it seems, it seemed to me, uh, as an observer, that the least objectionable Uh, from an American perspective, and most democracies around the world, elected officials, politicians, have the primary role in selecting the judiciary.
It doesn't mean that the judiciary can't be independent. In many cases, these are lifetime appointments, and once they're in, they can't be pressured or removed. Uh, so, so their connection or their fealty, if you will, to their, their loyalty to the politicians that appointed them, uh, other than perhaps ideological alignment, uh, is pretty tenuous.
And so, the elected government choosing, selecting judges is pretty standard. And, and the, trying to address that and make that more the norm in Israel. Again, seemed to me from afar, like the least [00:09:00] objectionable. The most controversial, which actually defined most of the press coverage when this whole reform process started in the first few weeks, going back kind of January 4th, immediately after January 4th, was the override clause, what you just described.
That seemed to too many people abroad, and it, and it, and it shaped a lot of the press coverage was this, wait a minute, so the, so the government, if it doesn't like it, a court decision can just vote with a one seat majority. To overturn a court decision, a court ruling that seemed, and you even had political leaders from the American right.
Making that point publicly, uh, you saw the comments by former U. S. Ambassador David Friedman and others raising this point. Now, the override clause, my understanding, was not a priority of Prime Minister Netanyahu's or Yairiv Levin's or Simcha Rothman's or some of the other players. It was, the override clause was a priority for the Haredi parties, for the, for the ultra Orthodox parties.
And it was sort of [00:10:00] slid in at the last minute as the judicial plan was being compiled. And if that is true, it's ironic that it's that provision that wound up becoming so definitional. So, So what do we know about the override clause, and do you think either what you're describing is the likely path, if anything gets passed, that it is seriously amended, or is it just dropped altogether?
You know, you're looking at it, and I agree, uh, to an extent, you're looking at it from a U. S. perspective. And from the U. S. perspective, you're right. The, you know, the political class appointing Supreme Court justices is the norm in places like the United States. And therefore, even I, who've been living here for 30 years, I also look at it and I say, hold on, we, we, we elect Knesset members to make.
Life and death decisions for Israelis because they're appointed as ministers and they serve in the security cabinet. They decide if we go to war, don't go to war. If they call up reserves, they don't call up reserves. And we draw the line at selecting 15 people to sit on the Supreme Court bench. I don't understand why [00:11:00] people are such up in arms over that, but that, that is the, the, the thrust I would say of the main opposition when it comes to the.
The override clause, which, like you said, accurately got a lot of attention outside of Israel here, the origins of it was the ultra orthodox who their main. Interest was the IDF draft bill, right? As you recall, we went to our first election at the end of 2018 because Avigdor Lieberman, the head of Yisrael Beiteinu, uh, was defense minister, resigned because there was no agreement on an IDF draft bill.
And the court kept on delaying also making a decision because basically the default is every 18 year old. gets drafted into the IDF. The ultra Orthodox don't want that. So there's been these ongoing negotiations for years. The court's hearing is still pending. A court decision is still pending and the ultra Orthodox want to make sure that they have the ability to override whatever decision the court would make.
That's [00:12:00] their personal interest to take care of their personal constituents. For Netanyahu though, at the end of the day, This is all about who the Supreme Court justices are. And the reason is because of his personal circumstances. In my opinion, what he wants to try to do is make sure that he has on the court people who will be sympathetic to him if his trial makes its way to the Supreme Court, which is likely to happen.
If he's convicted now in the District Court, which is hearing the trial on charges of fraud, bribery, breach of trust, if he gets convicted in any of that and he decides to take it to the Supreme Court, he wants to make sure that he has those judges there. And there's a couple appointments coming up. At the end of this year, I think it's September or October, Supreme Court President Esther Hayyut will be stepping down because in Israel, you end your term at the age of 70.
There will be another two justices shortly after who will also be stepping down. So you're going to have two to three appointments fairly quickly, one [00:13:00] after the other, including a new president, which is The judge who decides and determines what, who are going to be when there's a case, they determine who are the justices who sit on that case.
They determine the size of the panel. It's not like in America where it's all nine. Here, could be three, could be five, it could be nine, it could be ten. So, these are all very important aspects of the reform for Netanyahu personally. Uh, many folks on the right have commented to me in Israel, supportive or at least somewhat sympathetic to the judicial reforms.
Uh, many in the center believe that there need, needs to have been some kind of reform that the Supreme Court had gotten out of control. The courts generally, in terms of the power it had irrigated for itself, the, the judiciary. Can you just spend a minute explaining that, how that happened and what happened and, and why it had kind of gotten out of control?
Look, the court over years had taken [00:14:00] for itself, I think we could call it an exaggerated level of authority and the ability to really interfere and intervene in matters that probably it shouldn't have. Right. There's the famous two words in Hebrew that go, how cold she feet, everything can be educated. Uh, and that was a saying by the former Supreme court president, our own Barack, who served in that position in the 1990s, uh, to the two thousands.
And he was very influential. And basically he took a number of basic laws. Remember Israel does not have a constitution, but over the years has passed a several laws with a little. elevated status called basic laws. And he took these laws and he kind of compiled through them something of a constitution or a charter that the court would work with.
And it would kind of be the court's compass of how it operates. And he used that to interfere [00:15:00] in Diplomatic decisions, insecurity decisions. I mean, most recently we can look at, for example, the decision to disqualify Aryeh Dary, the leader of the Shas party, from serving as a minister, right? So here was a guy who had 400, 000 votes in the most recent election, was a two time convicted felon.
Is A disgrace that he's even appointed as a minister. So to be clear, he's the leader of the Shas party, which is a Sephardic, ultra Orthodox party. Major player. Derry himself and the party he leads has been a major player in coalition governments of both Labour and Likud going back decades. Netanyahu.
And so he, I don't think he should have been a minister, two time convicted felon, but 400, 000 people voted for him. When the government was presented to the Knesset, the Knesset has to vote to affirm. 64 Knesset members voted to [00:16:00] confirm his appointment. And then the, the court comes and says, well, it was an unreasonable decision.
So you have a lot of people who look at that and they say, with all due respect to the 10 Supreme Court justices who heard that case, who are you to tell 400, 000 people plus 64 Knesset members that what we decided was unreasonable? And that, that's just one recent example, but there's other cases that have come up over the years where the court has just been.
It has created a feeling among certain sectors of society, particularly the right, particularly the ultra Orthodox, particularly the settler movement, that they are against them. Now, there's another issue here, Dan, and that is the diversity of the court. We cannot ignore the fact that we are in 2023, and we live in a country where half of the people are Ashkenazi.
And half of the people are Sephardim, come from Middle Eastern, North African countries. So the latter, the Sephardim come from North Africa, from the Arab world, from Arab countries, from the Arab Middle [00:17:00] East. Uh, and, and they are not part of the, the European mostly originated elite that had run the country for the first, you know, 30 plus years.
So, how is it that, you know, you have a lot of judges, you have a lot of lawyers and legal experts who are of Sephardic descent. How is it that a Supreme Court of 15 justices only won in 2023? Is of Sephardic descent now I could go back 30 40 years ago and you could say but Yakov then You know, they were they came later than the european jews They took them didn't come educated necessarily Like you could have a jew came from vienna or berlin who already was a judge or a lawyer And and people who came from morocco or egypt or syria or libya.
They weren't okay fine But we're 2023. You look at 75 years of the Supreme Court, 72 justices, only 11 of Sephardic descent. That does not bode well for a, uh, uh, [00:18:00] uh, or that doesn't tell a good story if you're trying to say, I'm a court that represents all of Israel. That doesn't. So there was real distress and a real feeling of disenfranchisement by significant sectors of this country.
And that's where this reform came from, I think. Now, the issue is, and I'm sorry to tie it back to Bibi, though, to Netanyahu, but there have been people who have been trying to push this for years because of the real disenfranchisement. Netanyahu has for always, forever, rejected any attempt to change the courts.
But, so what happened now? We get back to what we mentioned before, his personal circumstances. So, you have this kind of, uh, perfect storm of people who really do feel disenfranchisement. Reform is really needed. I think, for example, just my personal opinion, reform is desperately needed. We need reform. What they tried to do, though, they went too far.
So I would like to see [00:19:00] a lot of these laws passed, but just a little different, right? And you know, I want to see an override bill, not with the simple majority. I want to see changes to the judicial appointments, but I don't want to see it that they just have exclusive authority, right? So our majority, I want to see changes, but that make Israel's democracy stronger.
And I think most people agree, by the way, the great success of this whole three months, to an extent, one of the great successes is that probably all of Israel today agrees that we need judicial reform, which wasn't the case three months ago. Including the people protesting? The hundreds of thousands of people protesting?
I have no doubt that the vast majority of those people believe, and polls show this, there are polls taken in Israel, most people in this country agree that changes are needed. By the way, you listen to Yair Lapid, you listen to Benny Gantz, everyone in the opposition is willing to make changes. And even President Herzog, when he rolled out his compromise plan a couple weeks ago, It included some [00:20:00] dramatic changes to the status quo of the way things are now.
Herzog can't be accused of being someone who comes from the right or is a Netanyahu supporter. He's the former head of labor. He's a left wing politician. Everyone recognizes that we have to change this current situation.
I guess what I'm, um, not following is, if it was so life and death for Netanyahu, uh, in the way that you characterize it, not, you know, in terms of, um, his, his legal situation, why did he, to, to quote Anshul Pfeffer in one of his columns in Haaretz, why did he seem bored by the topic? When you, you, when you hear Bibi talk about Iran, or you hear him talk about the prospect of, of normalizing with Saudi Arabia and ending with.
And formally ending the Arab Israeli conflict, which he talked about on, on this podcast, uh, before he formed his government. You can just see the energy and the creativity and the [00:21:00] focus in his, in his, when you're talking to him and you can hear it in his voice. It's like what he wakes up every day to work on.
And judicial reform just didn't seem to be a subject that he was waking up every day to focus on. And as Pfeffer said, uh, that listening to Bibi answer questions about judicial reform was like listening. Tim answer perfunctory questions about the Palestinians or the Palestinian peace process. He was bored by it, right?
Look at Anshul's a good friend and I have great respect for him but I have to disagree with him on this because Netanyahu, the flip side would be, why did he let the country get ripped apart for three months? He saw what was happening. He saw how IDF reservists were saying, we don't feel like we could serve.
You know, Dan, there was that moment a few weeks ago where 37 out of 40 reservists from the 69th squadron of the Air Force, these are Pilots who fly in F 15Is, in one of Israel's most advanced long range combat aircraft. And they came and said, [00:22:00] we don't feel that we can continue to serve. And then there was one Likud minister who said, they're cowards and narcissists.
There was another Likud minister from the same party as Netanyahu who literally said to them, go to hell. Now, I know these people. These are the people. Because I wrote a book about these guys. These are the people who on September 5th, 2007, were told, because they had no clue what they were doing, they were told in the afternoon, you guys are going to get into your cockpits just after midnight.
Fly to northeastern Syria and destroy a nuclear reactor that was being built for Bashar al Assad by North Korea. And they did that, without hesitation, in a mission that defies imagination and neutralized the threat that could have been of existential nature to the state of Israel. To call them cowards?
So, you know, Netanyahu allowed this whole thing to happen. He allowed for these 300, 000 people to take to the streets. He allowed for the country to be in a state of paralysis for Joe Biden. Who you can't say is not a friend of the state of Israel. To make the comments that he made this week and to [00:23:00] say, No, I will not be inviting the Prime Minister of Israel in the near term.
Dan, you know American politics better than I do. Pe Presidents do not talk that way about an Israeli Prime Minister. It just doesn't happen. In the bad years of Obama. We didn't, we didn't have comments of public of that nature. Okay. So you're, you're moving your head back and forth. No, because I had this conversation the other day with, uh, with John Podhortz on his commentary magazine podcast.
And he made the point that if this were Obama, he said he was grateful that Biden was president right now, instead of Obama, because he said, if this were Obama, that That Biden has been basically pretty, pretty restrained and if this were Obama, he'd be doing like daily, you know, civics lessons to the Israeli people, uh, about, uh, about their, uh, about the importance of their democracy in a way that would be insufferable.
So I'm not, in any event, I take your point. It's, it's, it's a bad moment and you see the economy, you see the Shekel drop crashing, you see just all these things that are happening and [00:24:00] Netanyahu could have tried to do something. to, to change this, but he didn't. So I would argue that he actually cares deeply about this.
And, and the fact is the only time what finally pushed him to stop the legislation was the fact that after he, um, fired and sacked Yov Galant, the defense minister, and that spontaneous demonstration that you mentioned after that happened. He, he recognized he can't let this go on, and he had to, he had to pull back, and thankfully he did.
And where do you think his, Prime Minister Netanyahu's position right now is? Is within the right within his coalition. How strong is he within his own coalition government and generally speaking with the rank and file of the of the right? I think everyone within his party, at least wanted this also to be delayed that they they were not happy with the way this was moving ahead.
And they realized they were fearful within Likud, at least that they're going [00:25:00] to pay a political price if there's going to be a new election and that this could really. be damaging to their political future. His, his coalition partners, Bitzal Smucic from the Religious Zionist Party, Itamar Ben Gvir from the Jewish Power Party, and the Ultra Orthodox Parties, they wanted this judicial reform more.
And as we saw the other day, Benver put a gun on the table and said to Netanyahu, if you, if you stop, I'm going to pull out of the coalition. So Netanyahu basically gave him the authority to establish a national guard that would be under his jurisdiction and authority, not under the police. So basically Benver, this man who we've All been concerned about because of his background is now getting something of a private militia in Israel.
Yeah, although, I'll believe it when I see it. I mean, I mean, uh, True, true. I mean, I mean, for one, I think this idea, from what I understand, originated with Naftali Bennett during the, during the, when there were Jewish Arab violence in [00:26:00] towns like Lod back in, I guess it was 2021, spring of 2021, around the Gaza war.
And Bennett talked about this kind of like, uh, reserves for police force. So that was That was the original concept. Ben Vir is now taking that idea and wants, and wants it, and wants it under his, uh, under his supervision, and okay, so, so Netanyahu says he can have it. Now good luck building, doing the capacity building and building it out, and it's years in the making, and who knows if Ben Vir is even gonna, I mean, you know, so, it sounds like it was a concession.
And Netanyahu is the king of making promises and somehow finding a way to make them disappear over time. This is true. Right, right. Okay. So, um I mean, I guess this flare up with the U. S. over the last couple of days, quote unquote, flare up, uh, it seems to me, so I've spoken to officials in the U. S. and kind of sort of understand, uh, not that I sympathize, but I sort of understand why they felt They needed to speak out, although President [00:27:00] Biden's own statement sounds like it was not orchestrated.
It was just, uh, him speaking out in his voice was just sort of off the cuff and not planned. Uh, but one can make the argument that it's in Prime Minister Netanyahu's interest right now. To have a little bit of escalation with President Biden as well, because in the eyes of the right, he may have seemed to have folded.
I mean, the rank and file, the base right, not, not, not the actual elected members of the Likud party, but the, but the base, the grassroots of the party, the best grassroots of the right that he has folded. He blinked and showing that he's not going to be pushed around by, by President Biden the way someone like Yair Lapid would in his framing.
Um, Yeah, but he is kind of caving into what Biden has asked him to do, right? Biden, from the beginning, spoke about a need for a broad consensus, and that's basically what's happening right now in these negotiations, is an attempt to reach a [00:28:00] consensus. I think that what Netanyahu did in, you know, I long thought that the most left wing member of this coalition A lot of people said it's going to be Netanyahu.
I said, no, it's actually going to be Joe Biden, even though he's not a member of the coalition, but he's the guy that Netanyahu will always be able to look to and say, Joe, save me from the guys on the right, because all Biden has to do is put his foot down in a big way. And that could be the excuse that Netanyahu needs to say, okay, I can't build settlements.
I can't legalize outposts. I can't move forward with judicial reforms. It took Biden some time to do that. But I think that this was definitely instrumental in getting Netanyahu to back off a bit. But also keep in mind, Dan, you know, again, you know, this U. S. Israel history just as well, if not better than I do.
Prime Minister Netanyahu. is now three months plus into his tenure as Israel's prime minister, right? And in this term, he has yet [00:29:00] to be invited to the United States. That's pretty, uh, that's remarkable, right? If you go back to 09, Shortly after he came into office, he went off to the U. S. in 2012, again re elected.
He went, 2013, sorry, he went back to, he went to the U. S. and then Obama even came to Israel. Um, you, you, you have trips that are usually quick succession to an election. And for the formation of a government. He's not getting that. He's not being invited to the U. S. He's not being invited to the Emirates, which he really wanted to go visit also.
That's because more about the Palestinian issue. It's, it's, things aren't going so great for him at the moment. I would make the argument if he's going to come to Washington, it's better to wait until the end of Ramadan. Let's get through this period, because if there's violence that flares up in, in Israel while he's in Washington, all he wants to do in Washington is talk about Iran and talk about Saudi Arabia.
And if he's in, if he's in Washington, he's having to talk [00:30:00] about, you know, explain Ben Gvir's latest statement that is inflaming a situation, uh, a phase of, of, of Ramadan era, of Ramadan, uh, period violence. Uh, it's just like a total mess and a distraction. So it, I, you know, I, I I'm not advising him, but I would think that, um, kind of waiting till the spring or early summer is probably, uh, a better window, but in any event.
Alright, now let me ask you about someone we have not talked about, or two people we have not really talked about. How do you think Yair Lapid comes out of this, and how do you think Benny Gantz comes out of this? So let me start with Benny Gantz for a moment. Benny Gantz, um, was the guy who was Mr.
Dialogue from the beginning. Called for talks and a compromise and was, and even picked up the phone and called Netanyahu at his own initiative early on in this process. Lapid, on the other hand, much more militant, going to a lot of the protests, calling for, uh, to keep them going, to escalate, saying, I won't talk unless there's a 60 day freeze, [00:31:00] really climbing up a high tree, setting really high demands.
Gantz with, you know, the classic of people who know Benny Gantz, just a good guy, a nice guy, right? Not to say that Lapid's not a nice guy, but Gantz kind of gives off that really, I'm just, you know, one of the Hevra, one of the guys, and, you know, just wants to do the right thing. That's always been his problem, by the way.
That's also his weak spot. That's how he fell into a government with Netanyahu in 2020. Uh, during Corona, after promising not to sit with him, and then Netanyahu cheated him out of it. And then we went to another election. That's long history gon though is gaining from this. He took away a, a poll taken just a couple days ago.
He took away a few seats from YA Lapid and actually in the question, when put up against Netanyahu, who is more suitable to be Prime Minister nce beat Neno by a few percentage points, which is very interesting. Right. Very, very interesting. Lapid. more militant, more the face of the protests, very strong, is polling high, [00:32:00] is polling, some polls show him at 26, 27 seats, just one or two below Likud, so he's gained from this as well.
Um, When it comes to him up against Netanyahu in terms of the suitability for prime minister compatibility, he still does not beat out Netanyahu necessarily as like Gantz does. But, um, the polls also show that the likely coalition, if we were to go into election today, tomorrow, or sometime soon. That Lapid would be able to form a coalition.
So Lapid had an interest to an extent as did Gantz of keeping this going Because this was a great this protest got them A lot of public support in moving forward and trying to create a movement that can potentially bring down the coalition Although it seems to me that Gantz has more options going forward because he he's someone unlike He's someone who could sit in a government of the center right or the center left.
So he could become a player. Correct, [00:33:00] correct. Gantz has that ability, and he's more flexible in that sense. Gantz could potentially even join this coalition, right? I mean, you know, he could come in and replace Benkvier, or he could come in and replace Smutrych, if the numbers were to add up, potentially.
Gantz Much more flexible, ideologically speaking. Also remember that Gantz's number two guy in his party is Gidon Tzar. He's a former Likud member. Hawkish, definitely on the Palestinian issue. A very conservative lawmaker. He's different than Lapid. Lapid's also, you know, This whole other discussion, Dan, I think we've spoken about this in the past, but there's, there's no real left today in Israel.
It's much more of a center, uh, that we have. And Lapid also could be fluid, but he has made this promise he would never sit with Netanyahu. So that's kind of what got him. He's stuck in that box still. Um, but. Look, the day after Netanyahu, everything's open, right? Everything's possible. Okay, now I want to [00:34:00] talk about the good news.
So you, you said to me, uh, in a conversation offline, that you see silver linings, uh, in this moment, two in particular. Can you, uh, can you talk a little bit about that? Because let me tell you, where I sit, where I sit, I mean There's been a lot of despair, and a lot of lamenting, and a lot of, um, hysteria. So, so sprinkle in some, sprinkle in some, some hope and optimism.
Well, before I do, I want to say that I share that despair. I've been living in Israel for 30 years. I've been, I was here in the 90s, going to high school when buses were blowing up just a couple of streets over. I was here as a reporter already during the second intifada, covering those bus bombings. I was in Gaza when Israelis were just literally physically removed from their homes.
Well, which I thought was, we shouldn't have been there, but that was painful to watch. And I covered the Lebanon war, right? So, I've seen terrible moments in [00:35:00] this country. But nothing was as depressing as what we've had here over the last three months. The, the, the, the feeling that we're ripping ourselves apart, that we are doing this to ourselves, that the whole world is watching us, and what the Jewish state of Israel has to say is that we will, we'll do the job for you.
What you all wanted, we'll do for you. It was terrible. But the silver linings, I think, Dan, are two. The first is, We have to recognize the fact that Israel today is a superpower, right, for three primary reasons. Our economy, you look at 2022, 6. 5 percent growth. Our GDP per capita, 50 something thousand, number 30 or 31 on the ranking of countries.
Projected growth for 2023, just below 3%. Inflation, half of what it is in the United States. Now that could all change, and especially because of the judicial reform. There's warnings, but we're doing okay. We have energy independence today, which is [00:36:00] Amazing. Who would have imagined a few years ago that we would be, we, Israel, would be exporting gas to Egypt and Jordan.
Who would have imagined that we'd have a thousand BCM, billion cubic meters of gas, that we can access. We need only 40 to 50 a year. We can, we can provide the world with gas, and the world wants it. Europe is coming here. And that's what they want from Israel. And we know what energy independence means today, especially when thinking about Russia and Ukraine.
How valuable it is. And then there's our military might. We're powerful. I mean, there's no, look around us. We have lots of threats. But none of them can destroy Israel. No one can conquer territory in Israel. There's no conventional military that threatens Israel. Yes, Iran looms on the horizon and it's, it's bad and has to be dealt with.
But they're not yet at the bomb. And even if they were to start racing and we would have to do something, I'm confident that we, we are strong enough to deal with that threat. So, and I would add, and, and, and I would add at a time that the US is, has been gradually through three administrations, through, [00:37:00] through Obama, Trump, and Biden has been reducing its presence in the Middle East.
The indispensability of the US security relationship, USIS Israel security relationship is even more valuable. I mean, the US Israel Alliance becomes even more valuable for, and, and, and conventional military, uh, uh, areas and also cyber capabilities. I mean. Israel really is the most important player in the Middle East for the United States.
And you see it, I mean, just look at the exercises that have been taking place in the last year. This, this recent one, Juniper Oak, with thousands of soldiers and aircraft from CENTCOM in Israel. It's incredible. And, and, and I think what this all tells me is I look at the, the arc of history of Israel over 75 years.
We were, we, we literally for the first 50 years, pretty much, we were fighting for survival. Right? I mean, you know, it was, it was a battle. It was almost a daily battle. And we just wanted to see if we're going to make it through the day from the war of independence through the Six Day [00:38:00] War and the Yom Kippur War and the Lebanon War and this First Intifada and the Second Intifada and the Second Lebanon War.
I mean, it was, it was constantly this fight. But when you're strong, as we are now, and we've been pretty much over the last 20 years, we now have the ability to think about, so how should we appoint our Supreme Court justices? Because when you're fighting and you're not sure you're going to survive and make it through the day, you're not caring so much about how you appoint a Supreme Court justice.
So I think the silver lining here is that this is a testament of the fact that Israel today is in a good place. It can, it can think about things that when it's fighting for survival, it can't think about. So, that should give us some context. It's hard to talk to someone about their cholesterol level when they're in the middle of a knife fight.
You know? Well said. Israel's not in a knife fight anymore, so, or at least for not now, so it's like, let's talk about our democracy. Let's talk about a judicial, let's talk about our cholesterol. Right. These are issues that now we can actually talk about, right? [00:39:00] The second silver lining that I see is, I look at the The the protesters and I went to a bunch of these protests to watch and see who are who are the people who are Coming and you know a lot of the people you look at tel aviv where you have the big protests You know where it's almost 200 000 people on on those saturday night gatherings and demonstrations.
These are mostly almost exclusively secular Israelis, a lot of Ashkenazim. Um, these are the people who come from that area of the center of the country, Tel Aviv, Herzliya, Ramat Hasharon, Hod Hasharon. These are people who are middle to upper class. And they're out there protesting. And these are the people who we were told for years now, these are these Tel Avivians who are disconnecting from Israel or becoming post Zionists are, are more interested in high tech and traveling overseas and getting a second passport from a European embassy than about fighting for Israel.
Well, here we have them fighting for Israel. They're reclaiming our symbol, [00:40:00] the Israeli flag. They're out on the streets. They're not post Zionists. These are people who either never left Zionism or have refound their Zionism. And I think that this movement Whether you agree with them as protestors or you don't, there's something inspiring of watching so many people fight for their country.
And I wonder, how will we channel this, this power that we now have in this country? Will it just be wasted on a couple of new politicians? Or, can we, can we change the narrative? Can we tell a new story of what our raison d'etre is to be here in Israel? What is our purpose as a country? Why do we exist?
You know, This, this'll touch home for you a bit, Dan. In the beginning, when we were founded as a state, we were founded as a safe haven for Jews. Right? That's what Israel was supposed to be. Save Jews after Holocaust, et cetera. And for many years, that's what we were. Even in to the 90s, when you had a million, early 90s, when a million Jews from the former Soviet Union [00:41:00] came here.
And then we didn't need to be safe haven anymore. So we became the startup nation, right? Referring to your book. And that became the story that we told everybody. But. But the question is now, what is our purpose as a country? Right. And, and, and what, what are we telling ourselves and why are we here? And I think that this is a moment that we can actually use this movement.
To talk about these issues, to talk about identity, to talk about purpose. Before I let you go, and I don't want to, I don't want to rain on your, on your green shoots. I don't want to, I don't want to, I don't want to dilute your, your silver linings. Should we be worried at all about the precedent that was set by military reservists conditioning their service, their training, their participation in their, in their commitments they had made?
Uh. As it relates to the security of the state on the [00:42:00] outcomes of political debates. First of all, we should be worried. Yes, without a doubt. Right. With this precedent set, it means that let's, let's go, let's jump fast. Let's fast forward 20 years from now, 30 years from now. One day there's a great, there's a Nelson Mandela and the Palestinian authority, excuse me, we're making peace and Israel's pulling out of settlements, which I don't think will ever happen, but let's say it does.
And you have soldiers who say, no, we're not going to, we're not going to do it. We're not going to do it. Cause remember those guys back in 2023 who took to the streets and said, we're not going to serve. So we're not going to do it now either. That precedent has now been set and it can be used by the right, just by the left.
But, but I will say one thing about reservists. And I think this is important. A soldier who's serving in his or her mandatory compulsory service, that's, that's, that's something that I think we cannot accept definitely any refusal of orders. Okay, just hold on, hold on, this is important, this is important for our listeners, because you're, you're, you're, [00:43:00] because I was hearing this during, when all this was happening, I was like, can you believe these soldiers are are refusing to serve, and I was like, well, hold on.
You're trying to draw a distinction between the standing army, and the reservists. The reservists are technically volunteers. I mean, they're volunteers, more or less, most of them, and they were basically saying, we're pulling back from our voluntary commitment, which is different than a soldier who's in their kind of standing army, 18 to 21, or 18 to 22 year old.
Uh, phase of their life that are, that are required to serve. Yeah, when you're in the standing army, you have to follow orders. When you're a reservist, you're living your life. Do you have to come once a week as a pilot to fly and risk your life to bomb somewhere in Syria? If you think that the government that's sending you is a government that you don't, uh, you know, doesn't represent you or is going in a bad direction, now, I think it's wrong.
But I can understand why these people say, I'm not going to volunteer for that service. That's not something I'm willing to do anymore. I think the bigger, the [00:44:00] problem was that it started with the reservists. It was starting to seep into the standing army. And that's what I was hearing from IDF commanders who were very concerned that what will happen next time they want to take the Golani Brigade off to some operation somewhere and the soldiers say, well, we're not going to, we're not going into battle in Gaza for that guy Netanyahu anymore.
That would be the end of Israel. Right. So w you know, the, the, the chain of command, the sanctity of our military is w we, we depend on that. And, and this is, this is a dangerous precedent, but I can also understand. Their distress and where their pain comes from and I can only hope Dan that this these talks that are taking place right now I hope and pray that they're able to find a compromise and and we can put this behind us But the real work and this is what people need to remember the real work of healing Israel because this rift this divide is still there.
It didn't just pop out 12 weeks ago The bigger [00:45:00] context is we had four years with five elections Right, that's constant mudslinging, constantly me telling you, you're bad, your guy's bad, my guy's good, being pitted against one another. This is still the atmosphere. We have to find a way to bridge this big, wide wedge and divide that still exists here.
From your lips to God's ears, Yakov, we'll leave it there. Thank you for taking the time in what I know is a Endless, uh, loop of incredibly hectic news cycles for you at the Jerusalem Post and in your life, uh, so, so I really do appreciate your spending, uh, some time with us, and I'll probably be calling you soon to have you, have you back on, because, um, This, I feel like we are not at the, the end of this story.
We're not even at the beginning of the end. So, uh, so I hope you'll, you'll indulge us and come back on. Always. All right. Thank you. Thank you.[00:46:00]
That's our show for today. To keep up with Yaakov's work, you can still find him on Twitter, at YaakovKatz. That's Y A A K O V K A T Z. And you can continue to find his work at the Jerusalem Post, that's JPost. com. Call Me Back is produced by Ilan Benatar. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor.